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forecasting (89) prediction markets (87) Metaculus (34) calibration (15) Polymarket (10) betting (5) Bayes' Theorem (2) election (2) market efficiency (2)

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

acx
Nov 7, 2024 2,993 words 248 likes 647 comments Listen · 18 min Read Read
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