Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in discussing AI risk, arguing that uncertainty doesn't justify complacency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in relation to AI risk. This fallacy argues that because a situation is completely uncertain, it will be fine. Scott explains why this reasoning is flawed, using examples like the printing press and alien starships to illustrate his points. He argues that even in uncertain situations, we need to make best guesses and not default to assuming everything will be fine. Scott criticizes Cowen's lack of specific probability estimates and argues that claiming total uncertainty is intellectually dishonest. The post ends with a satirical twist on Cowen's conclusion about society being designed to 'take the plunge' with new technologies. Shorter summary

Scott explores how antibiotics and antiprotozoal drugs unexpectedly affect mental health, suggesting that random chemicals may frequently influence mental processes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how antibiotics and antiprotozoal drugs can have unexpected psychiatric effects, using examples like suramin for autism, minocycline for schizophrenia, iproniazid for depression, and cycloserine for anxiety disorders. He argues that this phenomenon suggests random chemicals may often affect mental processes, implying that base rates for psychiatric effects of drugs might be higher than commonly assumed. The post starts with recent research on suramin, moves through historical examples, and concludes with reflections on the implications for drug discovery and toxicity claims in psychiatry. Shorter summary