Want to dive into Scott Alexander's work and his thousands of blog posts? This fan website lets you sort and do semantic search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Tag: base rates

Or pick a range
–
min
Blog
Only
Year
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Tags
Browse all 5743
No results found
base rates (2)
study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
No results found
study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
Links to
 No results found
domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (896 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (560 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (491 posts)
domain: twitter.com / x.com (445 posts)
domain: nih.gov (333 posts)
domain: reddit.com (321 posts)
domain: amazon.com (276 posts)
domain: substack.com (268 posts)
domain: google.com (235 posts)
domain: nytimes.com (229 posts)
domain: wordpress.com (175 posts)
domain: tumblr.com (159 posts)
domain: vox.com (159 posts)
domain: washingtonpost.com (143 posts)
domain: marginalrevolution.com (140 posts)
domain: sciencedirect.com (131 posts)
domain: theguardian.com (130 posts)
subreddit: slatestarcodex (130 posts)
domain: youtube.com (128 posts)
Remember which posts I've read on this device
2 posts
Date
Length
Likes
Comments
AI risk (48) existential risk (21) prediction (16) Tyler Cowen (5) uncertainty (3) base rates (2)

MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy

Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in discussing AI risk, arguing that uncertainty doesn't justify complacency.

acx
Mar 30, 2023 2,052 words 297 likes 1,019 comments Listen · 13 min Read Read
depression (45) schizophrenia (31) autism (28) psychopharmacology (7) antibiotics (3) drug discovery (2) anxiety disorders (2) base rates (2)

Psychotropic Base Rates: The Argument From Antibiotics

Scott explores how antibiotics and antiprotozoal drugs unexpectedly affect mental health, suggesting that random chemicals may frequently influence mental processes.

ssc
Jul 17, 2014 614 words 0 likes 31 comments Read Read
Per page:
Showing 1 to 2 of 2 results
Get these search results in an EPUB

Your filters match 2 posts.

Posts to include
–
Leave empty to keep the defaults. Range cannot exceed 500 posts.
Download now

Generates an EPUB right now and downloads it to your device.

Send to email

Generates an EPUB in the background and emails you a temporary download link.

Your email is not shared with anyone.

Email address

To send to your Kindle, just use this link.