Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various types of prediction markets, including information markets, decision markets, attention markets, and action markets. He explores their potential uses, limitations, and ethical considerations. The post covers how these markets can be used to predict past and present events, guide decision-making, allocate attention to important issues, and incentivize actions. Scott also discusses the challenges and potential pitfalls of each type of market, such as trust issues, the need for resolution, and potential for abuse. He concludes by drawing parallels between prediction markets and concepts in AI safety and neuroscience. Shorter summary

Scott proposes using prediction markets to fund investigative journalism, potentially solving the issue of funding quality reporting in the digital age. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes using prediction markets to fund investigative reporting, inspired by Hindenburg Research's model of profiting from exposing corporate fraud. He argues that this could solve the problem of funding investigative journalism in the age of unbundled media. The post explores how this might work for political reporting and even for less quantifiable issues like exposing discrimination in institutions. Scott acknowledges potential challenges but suggests that creating more specific prediction markets could address these. He concludes that this system, while unusual, could incentivize truthful reporting and separate serious journalism from 'infotainment'. Shorter summary