Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Survey, inviting readers to participate and potentially win a free subscription. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces his annual reader survey for 2024, which serves to gather information about his readership and to replicate psychological findings. He mentions some interesting results from past surveys, explains that the survey will take 15-30 minutes, and offers free one-year paid subscriptions to five randomly-selected respondents as an incentive. Scott provides a link to the survey and asks readers to report any significant issues with the questions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various types of prediction markets, including information markets, decision markets, attention markets, and action markets. He explores their potential uses, limitations, and ethical considerations. The post covers how these markets can be used to predict past and present events, guide decision-making, allocate attention to important issues, and incentivize actions. Scott also discusses the challenges and potential pitfalls of each type of market, such as trust issues, the need for resolution, and potential for abuse. He concludes by drawing parallels between prediction markets and concepts in AI safety and neuroscience. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compares setting moral standards to economic price-setting, arguing that more achievable standards might lead to better outcomes than unattainably high ones. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the question of how to set moral standards in society, comparing it to a price-setting problem in economics. He argues that setting the bar for being a 'good person' too high can be counterproductive, as it might discourage people from trying at all. The post suggests that a more effective approach might be to set standards that are ambitious but achievable, similar to how companies set goals for employees. Scott shares personal anecdotes about charitable giving and vegetarianism to illustrate how lower, more attainable standards can sometimes lead to better outcomes. He also discusses the idea of aiming to be above average morally, and how this could lead to gradual societal improvement. The post concludes by proposing that individuals might benefit from practicing 'price discrimination' on themselves, setting personal moral standards at the highest level they can sustainably maintain. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of people 'nominating themselves for the short end of a tradeoff' through their actions, and how this relates to ideas of desert and justice, sometimes conflicting with utilitarian calculations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of people 'nominating themselves for the short end of a tradeoff' through their actions, using three examples: an antidepressant with potential for abuse, a sexual harasser in a community, and basic income recipients who choose not to work. He explores how this concept relates to ideas of desert and justice, and how it sometimes conflicts with utilitarian calculations. The post grapples with the tension between utilitarian outcomes and the intuition that people who make bad choices should face the consequences, even if those consequences might be disproportionate to their actions. Scott considers various ways to reconcile or understand this tension, including viewing it as a misfiring heuristic, a revealed preference issue, or a necessary part of maintaining rule-based systems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores social impact bonds as a potential way to use corporate greed to solve social problems more efficiently than current government programs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses social impact bonds, a system where corporations invest in solving social problems and get paid by the government if they succeed. He compares this to prediction markets and sees it as a way to use greed for good ends. The post explores potential applications in healthcare, education, and crime prevention. Scott also discusses the risks and potential for abuse in such systems, but ultimately sees them as a promising way to address social issues more efficiently than current government programs. Shorter summary