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study critique (270)

book review (221)

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forecasting (89)

politics (89)

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science (85)

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Remember which posts I've read on this device

4 posts

Date
Length
Likes
Comments

Eliezer Yudkowsky (46) OpenAI (31) AI forecasting (11) paradigm shifts (8) AI timelines (7) Moore's Law (4)

Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work

Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique.

acx

Feb 23, 2022 11,126 words 142 likes 368 comments Listen · 71 min Read Read

technological progress (21) data interpretation (12) Moore's Law (4) environmental policy (3) control systems (2)

Does Reality Drive Straight Lines On Graphs, Or Do Straight Lines On Graphs Drive Reality?

Scott Alexander explores how straight-line trends on graphs might mask the true impact of interventions, using examples like the Clean Air Act and Moore's Law to illustrate the complexity of interpreting such data.

ssc

Mar 13, 2019 842 words 0 likes 155 comments Listen · 8 min Read Read

scientific progress (16) Moore's Law (4) AI predictions (4) research productivity (3) technological growth (2) historical comparisons (2)

Is Science Slowing Down?

Scott Alexander analyzes a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and possibly beneficial.

ssc

Nov 26, 2018 2,908 words 0 likes 283 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read

AI (112) economics (105) scientific progress (16) Moore's Law (4) exponential growth (3) research productivity (3) technological growth (2)

Is Science Slowing Down?

Scott Alexander examines a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and potentially beneficial.

ssc

Oct 15, 2018 2,854 words 0 likes 30 comments Listen · 23 min Read Read

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