Scott examines a prediction about eternal wealth inequality after the Singularity, analyzing potential counterarguments, prevention strategies, and ways to prepare for such a future. Longer summary

Scott analyzes a prediction that post-Singularity society will have eternal stagnant wealth inequality, with pre-Singularity capital determining wealth forever. He explores three angles: why this prediction might fail (eight counterarguments including AI killing humans, government intervention, and space colonization), how to prevent it (mainly through corporate structures like early OpenAI that limit investor returns), and how to maximize one's chances of being in the wealthy class (mostly concluding that traditional wealth-building advice applies). The discussion includes OpenAI's recent structural changes and their implications for wealth distribution post-Singularity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest and reviews all entries, praising their strengths and noting their impact on readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of the 2019 Adversarial Collaboration Contest. The winning entry is about calorie restriction and aging by Adrian Liberman and Calvin Reese, with a close second on the ethics of eating meat by David G and Froolow. Scott praises both entries for their different strengths: the calorie restriction piece for its focused approach on a factual question, and the meat ethics piece for its comprehensive review of arguments. He notes that the meat ethics collaboration had a significant impact on readers' eating habits. Scott then briefly reviews the other entries, discussing their strengths and weaknesses. He concludes by explaining the prize distribution and his decision not to run the contest next year, citing various challenges. Shorter summary

The post compares space colonization and terrestrial lifeboats as X-risk mitigation strategies, concluding that space colonies may offer better long-term survival guarantees despite higher costs. Longer summary

This post discusses the merits of colonizing space versus creating terrestrial lifeboats as strategies to mitigate existential risks (X-risks) to humanity. The authors, Nick D and Rob S, compare the costs, feasibility, and effectiveness of off-world colonies and Earth-based closed systems. They explore the challenges and benefits of each approach, including isolation from global catastrophes, technological requirements, and potential for research and economic opportunities. The collaboration concludes that while terrestrial lifeboats are more cost-effective and easier to implement, space colonies might offer better long-term guarantees for human survival due to the difficulty of abandoning them. Shorter summary

Scott imagines a future where population growth leads to more historians than historical subjects, resulting in extreme academic specialization and scrutiny of ordinary individuals from our era. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously extrapolates current trends in population growth and academic specialization to imagine a future where there are more classicists than ancient Greeks, and eventually more historians studying each person from our era than we might expect. He starts by calculating the current ratio of classicists to ancient Greeks, then projects this forward, considering factors like space colonization and technological advances. The post ends with a fictional scenario where thousands of future scholars are studying the life and tweets of a single, unremarkable person from our time, ironically analyzing a tweet where this person claimed no one noticed or cared about them. Shorter summary