Scott examines the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, which uses crowdsourced forecasting to measure democratic health, discussing its advantages over traditional expert-based indices and its vulnerabilities to manipulation and selection bias. Longer summary

Scott discusses the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, a new approach to measuring American democratic health using crowdsourced forecasting rather than expert opinion. The index aggregates 153 questions about democratic threats (like election cancellations or ballot access) weighted by forecasters' historical accuracy. Scott analyzes its advantages—transparency, resistance to ideological bias, and ability to measure probabilities rather than binary outcomes—alongside its risks, including susceptibility to crowd attacks, bot manipulation, and question selection bias. He finds the recent data somewhat reassuring (showing no expected worsening during Trump's term) and suggests the index will become more valuable over time as question biases become less relevant. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces the 'Psychiat-List', a crowd-sourced list of recommended mental health professionals for the rationalist community. Longer summary

Scott Alexander has created a list of mental health professionals recommended by members of the rationalist community, called the 'Psychiat-List'. The list is currently short and mostly focused on the Bay Area, but Scott is seeking crowd-sourced recommendations to expand it to more providers and cities. He encourages readers to provide additional recommendations, especially for cities likely to have many SSC readers, and to share experiences with professionals already on the list. Shorter summary