Scott updates his stance on marijuana legalization based on new data showing increased traffic accidents, but remains uncertain due to the complexity of the issue. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits his previous analysis of marijuana legalization, focusing on its effects on road traffic accidents. New studies show a 5-6% increase in car crashes and fatalities in states with legalized marijuana, contradicting his earlier prediction of a decrease. This shifts his assessment from slightly positive to slightly negative. However, he emphasizes the weakness of the math and the many assumptions involved. The post also considers other factors like people's enjoyment of marijuana, its comparison to alcohol and SSRIs, potential cancer risks, and tax implications. Scott concludes without a firm position, acknowledging the complexity of the issue. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the health risks of eating processed meat, demonstrating how to put such risks in perspective and interpret mortality statistics accurately. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the importance of putting health risks in perspective, using the example of a recent study linking processed meat consumption to increased cancer risk. He calculates that eating processed meat daily might reduce life expectancy by about three weeks, or roughly a minute per serving. He then expands on how to interpret relative risk increases in mortality, explaining that a 20% increase in mortality doesn't mean reducing lifespan by 20%, but rather a much smaller effect. The post emphasizes the need to distinguish between absolute and relative risk, and to consider the trade-offs between health risks and quality of life when making dietary decisions. Shorter summary