Scott argues that Viktor Orban's election loss doesn't vindicate him or disprove concerns about democratic backsliding, since autocrats can do many undemocratic things and still lose elections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to commentary suggesting that Viktor Orban's recent election loss proves critics who called him authoritarian were overreacting. He argues that democracy versus dictatorship exists on a spectrum, and that Orban engaged in numerous undemocratic practices (media control, gerrymandering, phone tapping, etc.) even though he ultimately lost. Scott provides historical examples of dictators and autocrats who also lost elections (Pinochet, Milosevic, Putin, Chavez), showing that losing an election doesn't retroactively prove a leader wasn't undermining democracy. He concludes by connecting this to Trump, acknowledging he initially dismissed concerns about Trump threatening democracy but changed his mind after the 2020 election and January 6, and argues we shouldn't discard the "democratic backsliding" framework just because Orban lost. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander challenges the popular interpretation of the Rat Park study, arguing that addiction is not solely caused by poor environments and emphasizing genetic factors in addiction susceptibility. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the 'Rat Park' study and its popularized interpretation that drug addiction is primarily caused by poor social environments. He presents historical examples of addiction in seemingly happy or fortunate individuals, such as Ogedei Khan and Native Americans, to challenge this view. The post then discusses the genetic factors in addiction, citing twin studies and known genetic markers. Scott acknowledges that unhappiness likely contributes to drug use but argues that the relationship between environment and addiction is more complex than the Rat Park model suggests. He proposes a toy model where other sources of reward can help resist drug addiction, but maintains that biological interventions like deregulating suboxone and researching psychedelic therapy are more immediately effective for helping addicts. Shorter summary