Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous, finding it and other treatments only marginally better than no treatment, based on flawed and inconclusive studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the evidence on Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) effectiveness, finding most studies to be flawed or inconclusive. He notes that AA seems to work about as well as other treatments, but only slightly better than no treatment at all. The post explores various studies, their methodologies, and their limitations, ultimately concluding that while AA and other treatments may help, their effects are small and often indistinguishable from each other or from brief interventions by doctors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews two papers exposing statistical manipulation techniques in psychology research and addiction treatment program evaluations. Longer summary

This post discusses two papers on statistical manipulation in scientific studies. The first paper, 'False Positive Psychology', demonstrates how researchers can use four tricks to artificially achieve statistical significance: measuring multiple dependent variables, choosing when to end experiments, controlling for confounders, and testing different conditions. The authors show these tricks can make random data appear significant 61% of the time. The second paper, 'How To Have A High Success Rate In Treatment', reveals how addiction treatment programs can inflate their success rates through various methods like carefully choosing the denominator, selecting promising candidates, redefining success, and omitting control groups. Both papers highlight the ease of manipulating statistics to produce desired results in research and treatment evaluations. Shorter summary