Scott Alexander estimates the frequency of significant scientific failures to evaluate the plausibility of climate change skepticism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the frequency of scientific failures to assess the likelihood of climate change skepticism being correct. He defines criteria for significant scientific failures and identifies three clear examples: Lysenkoism, Freudian psychoanalysis, and behaviorism in psychology. After estimating the total number of possible scientific paradigms, he calculates a failure rate of about 1.2-3.6%. He concludes that this low failure rate doesn't provide much support for climate change skepticism, as it's similar to the proportion of papers that don't support anthropogenic climate change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines the concept of self-conditioning, expressing skepticism while considering potential benefits and deciding to experiment with the technique. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of self-conditioning, specifically the idea of rewarding oneself to reinforce desired behaviors. He initially expresses skepticism, arguing that such methods are unlikely to work due to the brain's ability to predict rewards and the potential for overjustification. He then explores a modified version involving 'victory gestures' instead of tangible rewards. While still skeptical, Scott acknowledges the potential benefits of immediate reinforcement and the intrinsic nature of the reward. He examines evolutionary arguments against self-reinforcement and discusses the limited available research on 'self-consequation'. Despite his doubts, Scott concludes that he will try the technique due to its low cost and potential high value, while recognizing the need for more research in this area. Shorter summary