Scott Alexander humorously explores the potential for arbitrage in papal betting markets, noting legal and religious obstacles, while highlighting some curious odds and betting options. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously discusses the potential for arbitrage in papal candidate betting markets, particularly on PaddyPower.com. He notes that such betting is illegal in the US and condemned by the Catholic Church. The post explores various betting options, including the possibility of the next Pope being black and the choice of papal name. Scott points out some seemingly exploitable odds but ultimately concludes that practical and legal constraints make it difficult to actually profit from these opportunities. Shorter summary