Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the current state of prediction markets after their recent explosion in popularity, noting that while volume has grown from millions to billions per month, most of it comes from sports betting rather than the epistemic improvement he'd hoped for. He explores several problems: markets aren't asking the most important questions society needs answered; resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucking") create controversy; and there are concerns about insider trading and manipulation. He proposes solutions including a novel approach to conditional markets and suggests two paths forward: either creating user-generated, subjectively-resolved real-money markets (the "Siskind Cube"), or accepting that prediction markets' main value may be as training data for AI forecasters that could make the markets themselves obsolete by late 2026. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and explains his votes on California's 2022 ballot propositions and candidates, providing analysis and commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his California ballot for 2022, discussing state propositions and candidates for various offices. He explains his voting philosophy, analyzes each proposition and candidate, and provides his reasoning for his votes. The post covers topics like abortion rights, gambling legalization, school funding, tobacco regulation, and various political races, offering a mix of analysis, humor, and personal opinions on California politics and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously explores the potential for arbitrage in papal betting markets, noting legal and religious obstacles, while highlighting some curious odds and betting options. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously discusses the potential for arbitrage in papal candidate betting markets, particularly on PaddyPower.com. He notes that such betting is illegal in the US and condemned by the Catholic Church. The post explores various betting options, including the possibility of the next Pope being black and the choice of papal name. Scott points out some seemingly exploitable odds but ultimately concludes that practical and legal constraints make it difficult to actually profit from these opportunities. Shorter summary