Scott Alexander reviews a paper that claims to solve the Fermi Paradox by using probability distributions instead of point estimates in Drake Equation calculations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a paper by Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord that claims to dissolve the Fermi Paradox. The authors argue that the traditional Drake Equation approach, which multiplies point estimates of various factors, is flawed. Instead, they propose using a distribution of probabilities for each factor. Using this method, they calculate a much higher probability (about 1 in 3) of Earth being alone in the galaxy, compared to the vanishingly small probability from the traditional approach. Scott expresses surprise that this approach wasn't widely used before, given its apparent simplicity and effectiveness. He also highlights an interesting section from the paper's supplement discussing potential barriers to complex life arising from alternative genetic systems. Shorter summary