Scott examines a paradox where bloomers and anti-doomers warn against apocalyptic thinking while treating doomerism itself as an unprecedented existential crisis requiring drastic action. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Jason Pargin's novel 'I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom' and similar arguments from Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and progress studies advocates, noting they all share a contradiction: they argue we should stop treating problems as unprecedented crises, except for the problem of treating problems as crises, which they present as uniquely dangerous. The post examines how these thinkers simultaneously advocate against doomerism while expressing extreme concern about doomerism itself. Scott argues this reveals that strong views about a 'crisis of doomerism' are incompatible with worldviews that reject the existence of real crises, and concludes that optimism should be a heuristic rather than an absolute principle, with problems (including excessive doomerism) evaluated based on evidence using consistent standards. Shorter summary