Scott examines a paradox where bloomers and anti-doomers warn against apocalyptic thinking while treating doomerism itself as an unprecedented existential crisis requiring drastic action. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Jason Pargin's novel 'I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom' and similar arguments from Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and progress studies advocates, noting they all share a contradiction: they argue we should stop treating problems as unprecedented crises, except for the problem of treating problems as crises, which they present as uniquely dangerous. The post examines how these thinkers simultaneously advocate against doomerism while expressing extreme concern about doomerism itself. Scott argues this reveals that strong views about a 'crisis of doomerism' are incompatible with worldviews that reject the existence of real crises, and concludes that optimism should be a heuristic rather than an absolute principle, with problems (including excessive doomerism) evaluated based on evidence using consistent standards. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, providing humorous and insightful commentary on each candidate's background, policies, and campaign style. He covers a wide range of candidates, from established politicians to small business owners, immigrants, and even a former poet laureate. The post highlights the diversity of candidates and their often unconventional approaches to addressing California's issues, particularly homelessness. Scott concludes by expressing admiration for the candidates' spirit of optimism and civic engagement, seeing them as a positive sign for American democracy despite their slim chances of winning. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Zero To One' by Peter Thiel, discussing its advice on creating monopolies, believing in secrets, and embracing definite optimism for successful startups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Peter Thiel's book 'Zero To One', which offers advice for entrepreneurs aiming to create revolutionary startups. The book emphasizes the importance of creating monopolies, believing in secrets, and embracing definite optimism. Thiel argues that successful startups should aim to escape competition by achieving monopoly-like status through proprietary technology, network effects, economies of scale, or branding. He also stresses the value of believing in undiscovered secrets and making long-term plans, contrasting this with the modern skepticism about individual reasoning and planning. The review explores Thiel's concept of definite vs indefinite optimism and the implications for society and progress. Scott reflects on the book's contrarian stance and its emphasis on the importance of being genuinely weird in a world where everyone is trying to be unconventional. Shorter summary