Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of 31 diverse links and news items, covering topics from politics and science to cultural phenomena and AI developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 31 diverse links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. The topics range from unusual political titles and daylight savings time to AI-generated music albums and controversial scientific claims. Scott covers various subjects including community building, political disputes, cultural phenomena, and scientific developments. The post maintains a mix of serious commentary and humorous observations, touching on topics like the ACLU's labor dispute, a full-scale Tower of Babel replica, and claims about increasing IQ. It also includes updates from ACX grantees and discussions on urban planning and noise pollution. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for AI risk, weighing the potential for intermediate AIs to help solve alignment against the threat of deceptive 'sleeper agent' AIs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the varying estimates of AI extinction risk among experts and presents his own perspective, balancing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. He argues that intermediate AIs could help solve alignment problems before a world-killing AI emerges, but also considers the possibility of 'sleeper agent' AIs that pretend to be aligned while waiting for an opportunity to act against human interests. The post explores key assumptions that differentiate optimistic and pessimistic views on AI risk, including AI coherence, cooperation, alignment solvability, superweapon feasibility, and the nature of AI progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, particularly those rivaling ancient Egypt or 1700s Great Britain. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the existence of advanced Ice Age civilizations, categorizing potential claims into three levels of advancement: Stonehenge-like, Egyptian-like, and 1700s Great Britain-like. He presents three main arguments: the lack of archaeological sites that would survive sea level rise, the absence of evidence for early crop and livestock domestication, and the lack of elevated lead levels in ice cores and human bones from that period. While he doesn't completely rule out Stonehenge-level civilizations, he finds strong evidence against more advanced societies. The post concludes with probability estimates for future discoveries of pre-11,000 BC structures at different levels of sophistication. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering recent studies, unusual historical events, technological developments, and various curiosities across multiple fields. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items on diverse topics. It covers studies on pornography's effects, unusual military proposals, charter schools' success, climate change predictions, animal rights, restorative justice in schools, parenting advice, sexual selection theory, AI-generated content, breastfeeding patterns, visualization of classical music, Soviet whaling, cancel culture, housing legislation, embryo screening, retractions of scientific studies, gene drives, drug pricing, UFO sightings, cryopreservation, air conditioning efficiency, genetic testing for medication response, social justice terminology trends, napping benefits, nootropics survey results, Bitcoin price surge, transformer architecture in machine learning, fact-checking errors in popular books, challenges to persistence research, fringe ideologies in Japan, AI progress on language understanding, climate change risks, and various other curiosities and scientific findings. Shorter summary

A Links post presenting various news items and articles, ranging from cultural curiosities like the multiocular O to scientific findings about brain sex differences and genetic research, along with commentary on current events and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of interesting links and articles covering a wide range of topics. The post includes scientific findings (like research on sex differences in the brain and studies on antidepressants), cultural curiosities (like rare Cyrillic letters), political developments (like the White House's decision on Exxon drilling rights), and various technological advances (like an AI that writes poetry). The post provides brief commentary on each link, often with Scott's characteristically analytical and sometimes humorous perspective on the implications of each item. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander dissects a hoax chocolate study to critique common misconceptions about nutrition science, study design, and statistical methods. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a viral study claiming chocolate aids weight loss, which was revealed as a hoax designed to expose poor science journalism. He critiques four common but incorrect conclusions drawn from this incident: that people were gullible for believing it, that nutrition isn't a real science, that studies always need high sample sizes, and that p-values should be eliminated. Scott argues that there is previous research supporting chocolate's health benefits, that nutrition science uses multiple study types to build evidence, that sample size importance depends on the effect being studied, and that p-values have their place in research. He agrees with the fifth conclusion that science journalism should be trusted less, but notes that some sources like Wikipedia and specialized blogs are more reliable. Shorter summary