The review analyzes Real Raw News, a popular conspiracy theory website, examining its content, appeal, and implications in the context of modern media consumption and AI technology. Longer summary

This book review analyzes the website Real Raw News, a popular source of conspiracy theories and fake news stories centered around Donald Trump and his alleged secret war against the 'Deep State'. The reviewer examines the site's content, its narrative techniques, and its appeal to believers, drawing parallels to comic book lore and discussing the psychological needs it fulfills. The review also considers the broader implications of such conspiracy theories in the age of AI-generated content. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Ashlee Vance's 2015 Elon Musk biography, analyzing Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies to understand his successes and controversies. Longer summary

This book review analyzes Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Elon Musk, examining Musk's personality, work ethic, and business strategies. The review explores Musk's engineering abilities, management style, and the reasons behind his companies' successes despite controversial decisions. It discusses Musk's intense focus, his tendency to set unrealistic timelines, and his impact on employees. The review also touches on Musk's social skills, his approach to PR, and speculates on his future success with Twitter/X. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes Bay Area culture through a fictional house party featuring absurd startup ideas and social trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes a satirical Bay Area house party, featuring various absurd startup ideas and social trends. The narrative follows the protagonist encountering different characters, each presenting a ridiculous concept or social commentary. These include an automated land acknowledger, a restaurant based on historical food descriptions, a reality TV dating show as a dating strategy, the reveal of 'Max Roser' as a title, and an urbanist's attempt to solve housing issues with intentionally ugly architecture. The story humorously critiques various aspects of Bay Area culture, tech startups, and social justice initiatives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander narrates a haunting pre-dawn walk through San Francisco, mixing observations with apocalyptic musings before the spell is broken by sunrise. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes a surreal early morning experience in San Francisco, blending observations of the city with morbid thoughts and literary references. He reflects on the city's role as a hub of technological progress and potential existential risk, comparing it to pivotal moments in Earth's history. The post oscillates between eerie, apocalyptic imagery and more grounded observations, ultimately acknowledging the normalcy of the city as daylight breaks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents brief descriptions of 66 diverse projects seeking funding or support as part of the ACX Grants program. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the closing part of ACX Grants, presenting brief descriptions of projects that he couldn't fully fund himself. He invites readers to consider donating money, time, or other resources to these projects. The post includes 66 diverse project proposals, ranging from scientific research to social initiatives, each with a short description and contact information for interested parties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a list of predictions for 2022 covering various topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, personal life, and his blog. He assigns probabilities to each prediction. The post also includes predictions from Vox and Matt Yglesias, which Scott comments on and adjusts based on his own views. The post ends with an announcement of a prediction contest for readers, based on the same set of questions. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional cryptocurrencies and the humorous reasons for their ban by the SEC. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously describes a list of fictional cryptocurrencies banned by the SEC, each with unique and often absurd features. He explains the concept behind each cryptocurrency, ranging from religious-themed coins to those based on communist ideals or vampire slaying. The post then provides comical reasons for why each cryptocurrency was banned, often highlighting potential societal issues or unintended consequences of their implementation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews several prediction markets, focusing on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. He discusses the challenges of using Polymarket and the potential of Kalshi as a regulated futures exchange. The bulk of the post analyzes Metaculus predictions on AI-related topics, including the timeline for AGI development, human-machine intelligence parity, economic impacts of AI, and specific AI achievements. Scott notes the wide range of predictions and the interesting ways prediction markets can quantify expert opinions on complex topics. Shorter summary

Glen Weyl responds to Scott Alexander's critique of his technocracy essay, clarifying his position and defending his arguments while acknowledging some limitations. Longer summary

Glen Weyl responds to Scott Alexander's critique of his essay on technocracy, clarifying his position and addressing several points of contention. Weyl acknowledges some limitations in his understanding of the rationalist community, provides context for his original piece, and defends his examples of technocratic failures. He argues for a more nuanced view of mechanism design and technology adoption, emphasizing the importance of public communication and collaboration in successful technological change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual list of predictions for the upcoming year (2020). The post includes 100 predictions on various topics including coronavirus, politics, economics, technology, his blog Slate Star Codex, personal life, and professional life. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from global events to personal goals, with some entries redacted for privacy reasons. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2019, made at the beginning of the year. He lists all the predictions, marking which ones came true, which were false, and which were thrown out. The predictions cover various topics including US politics, economics and technology, world events, personal projects, and his personal life. Scott then analyzes his performance, showing that he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels. He attributes this underconfidence to trying to leave a cushion for unexpected events, which didn't materialize in 2019. Scott notes that his worst failures were underestimating Bitcoin and overestimating SpaceX's ability to launch their crew on schedule. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year (2019). The post includes 118 predictions covering various topics such as US politics, economics, technology, world events, and personal matters. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions range from political outcomes (e.g., Trump's presidency, Democratic primaries) to economic indicators (e.g., Bitcoin prices, stock market performance) and personal goals. Many personal predictions are redacted to protect privacy. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Boston Review article on futurism for focusing on identity politics rather than substantive future predictions, arguing this approach trivializes important technological and societal developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article from Boston Review about futurism, highlighting five main issues. He argues that the article fails to make real arguments about the future, misunderstands the concept of Singularity, wrongly associates certain technologies with privilege, falsely portrays conflict between different futurist groups, and grossly underestimates the impact of potential future changes. Scott contrasts this with his view of futurism as a serious endeavor to improve the human condition and prepare for potentially massive changes. He expresses frustration that much current discourse about the future focuses on identity politics rather than substantive issues, drawing a parallel with an 18th-century futurist novel that was more concerned with religious prejudice than imagining actual changes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his predictions for 2016, covering a wide range of topics from world events to personal matters. He assigns probabilities to each prediction, indicating his level of confidence. The predictions span various areas including global politics, economics, technology, and personal life events. Scott also mentions other bloggers who are making similar yearly predictions with probabilities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links with brief commentaries, covering topics from education and politics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, including education, politics, technology, history, and science. He discusses SAT coaching effectiveness, college admissions critiques, a new Civilization game, unusual government policies, teacher observations on student behavior changes, and scientific studies on schizophrenia and lithium. The post also includes humorous anecdotes and thought-provoking historical what-ifs. Scott's commentary often adds an insightful or ironic perspective to the linked content. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief commentary on topics ranging from climate change to social science research, with both serious analysis and humorous observations. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects, including climate change, economics, social science research, technology, and current events. He shares studies, news articles, and personal observations, often with a skeptical or analytical perspective. The post includes both serious topics and more lighthearted content, reflecting Scott's diverse interests and tendency to explore unconventional ideas. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics ranging from historical anecdotes to recent technological and scientific developments. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. It covers historical anecdotes, technological developments, scientific discoveries, social issues, and quirky facts. Scott Alexander discusses topics such as Amazon's drone delivery announcement, promising medical technologies, cancer research, personality disorders, polyamory, and unusual state facts. The post has a lighthearted tone and includes a mix of serious analysis and humorous observations. Shorter summary

Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links and brief commentary on topics ranging from unusual video games to genetic research and political oddities. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentary on various topics. It covers a range of subjects including unusual video games, disease threat research, medical concerns about Tylenol use during pregnancy, questionable online dating sites, car-free cities, the relationship between intelligence and longevity, augmented reality games, historical enigmas, genetic editing techniques, political oddities, social mobility research, and unusual election tactics. The tone is informative and sometimes humorous, with Scott providing his thoughts and observations on each item. Shorter summary