Scott Alexander introduces the 'North Dakota Constant' to explain why about 33% of people tend to believe in conspiracy theories in surveys, regardless of evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the prevalence of belief in conspiracy theories, introducing the concept of a 'North Dakota Constant' of about 33% - the percentage of people who will believe in a conspiracy theory without any supporting evidence. He compares this to the previously established 'Lizardman Constant' of 4%. The post analyzes survey data on beliefs in various conspiracy theories, including Pizzagate and Obama's birthplace, arguing that the seemingly high percentages of belief might be more reflective of this constant rather than actual widespread acceptance of these theories. Scott suggests that factors like the absence of 'don't know' options in surveys, low-information voters, and pre-existing biases might contribute to these results. He concludes that we should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions from such survey data, especially when the percentage of believers is close to 33%. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks the idea that Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, revealing that Bernie Sanders actually has much whiter support, and uses this to challenge common narratives about race and politics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the media narrative that Donald Trump's supporters are disproportionately white, showing it to be unsupported by polling data. He then reveals that Bernie Sanders, not Trump, has a much higher ratio of white to non-white support within his party. Scott uses this to illustrate two points: 1) 'white' in political discussions often means the 'Red Tribe' rather than literal race, and 2) low minority representation in a group doesn't necessarily indicate racism. He suggests that Sanders' lack of minority support might be due to him being seen as a 'weird intellectual signaling-laden countercultural movement', similar to other groups with low minority representation like atheists or BDSM enthusiasts. Shorter summary