Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various links and news items curated by Scott Alexander. It covers a wide range of topics including architecture, history, animal welfare, optical illusions, scientific studies, AI developments, demographics, and more. Scott provides brief commentary on many of the items, sometimes expressing his personal opinions or highlighting interesting aspects. The post includes both light-hearted topics (like unusual baby names) and more serious discussions (such as AI safety concerns and research on gender bias in academia). Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary

This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines claims that Trump is an isolationist and safer choice than Clinton regarding foreign policy. He argues that Trump's statements and past positions suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions. Alexander analyzes Trump's statements on ISIS, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, finding many hawkish positions. He discusses Trump's criticism of NATO and international trade agreements, suggesting this could destabilize the post-WWII peace. Alexander then examines Clinton's positions, arguing they are more moderate and predictable. He concludes that while Clinton's foreign policy isn't perfect, she represents a lower-variance, more stable choice compared to the unpredictability of Trump's potential actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a new list of internet annoyances for 2015, ranging from argumentative tactics to web design issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on his 2014 post about things he wanted to stop seeing on the internet, noting some improvements. He then lists 10 new annoyances for 2015, including misuse of Poe's Law, overuse of violent language in debate, cheap shots in arguments, Wikipedia-shaming, intrusive web design, clickbait tactics, overuse of 'entitled' as an insult, confusing 'post-' labels, and pedantic disputes about human evolution. The post is written in a humorous and slightly exasperated tone, critiquing various internet habits and trends. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines political tribalism in America, arguing that people often claim tolerance while harboring strong prejudices against their outgroups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of outgroups and ingroups, arguing that people often claim to be tolerant of all groups except their perceived outgroup. He suggests that in modern American society, political tribes (Red and Blue) have become more significant than traditional demographic divisions. The essay analyzes how these tribes interact, criticize each other, and sometimes engage in self-criticism that may actually be veiled attacks on the opposing tribe. Alexander ultimately reflects on his own biases and the difficulty of genuine self-criticism and tolerance. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes DW-NOMINATE data which unexpectedly shows no leftward drift in US politics over 120 years, despite historical evidence suggesting otherwise. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that society is drifting to the Left by looking at DW-NOMINATE, a statistical system that analyzes legislators' voting patterns over time. The system shows that while Congress has become more polarized and Republicans have shifted right since 1980, there has been no significant liberal drift in either party over the past 120 years. This result contradicts the expected leftward shift given historical developments like the expansion of the welfare state and civil rights movement. Scott finds this counterintuitive and struggles to explain it, noting that the system is well-regarded and its developers defend its use for intertemporal comparisons. Shorter summary