Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 5,981 participants. He provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers a downloadable dataset of responses from those who agreed to share their data publicly. Scott mentions that more detailed analyses will be published throughout the year, and invites readers to explore the data themselves. He also notes some measures taken to protect respondents' anonymity in the public dataset. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the results of a 2022 prediction contest where 508 participants assigned probabilities to 71 yes-or-no questions about future events. The post discusses the performance of individual forecasters, aggregation methods, and prediction markets. It highlights the success of superforecasters, the wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets. The article also announces winners, discusses demographic factors in forecasting ability, and introduces a new contest for 2023, emphasizing the potential for improving forecasting accuracy through various methods. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary

Scott responds to various reader comments on his article about having children despite climate change, addressing critiques and expanding on several points. Longer summary

This post highlights and responds to various comments on Scott's previous article about having children despite climate change concerns. It covers topics such as the sincerity of climate concerns, political implications, carbon emissions by location, the severity of climate change impacts, and arguments for and against having children in the current climate context. Scott engages with these comments, offering additional insights, corrections, and reflections on the original arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander describes a now-closed reader survey project supporting ACX community studies, with instructions on survey completion and content warnings. Longer summary

Scott Alexander is conducting a reader survey project to support studies by ACX community members. The post provides instructions for readers to fill out multiple surveys, starting with a general demographic survey and then proceeding based on their birth date. The surveys cover various topics, some targeted at specific populations. Scott notes that some surveys deal with sensitive topics and advises readers to skip any that make them uncomfortable. He also mentions that the project is now closed and no further responses will be counted. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander is finalizing preparations for a Reader Survey, asking participants to confirm their inclusion and make necessary adjustments before the Friday start date. Longer summary

Scott Alexander is preparing for a Reader Survey and is asking participants to confirm their inclusion in the list of surveys. He provides a list of surveys planned, noting some specifics about targeting and demographics collection. Scott also shares a link to a draft demographics survey and asks participants to review it, make necessary changes to their own surveys, and finalize everything before Friday when he plans to start the process. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the ACX Reader Research Survey, inviting researchers to submit questions for the blog's readership by July 10. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the ACX Reader Research Survey, inviting researchers to submit questions for the blog's readership. The survey aims to gather data on specific demographics among ACX readers, such as those in tech, science, meditation/drugs/biohacking, with unusual genders/sexualities, or psychiatric issues. Researchers are asked to email Scott with their project details and a Google Form containing their questions by July 10. The survey structure is still being finalized, but will likely involve assigning User IDs and asking basic demographic questions before directing participants to complete a selection of submitted surveys. The survey will run until August 1, with results potentially leading to blog posts or academic papers. Shorter summary

A review of Peter Zeihan's 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder and American preeminence based on geographic and demographic advantages. Longer summary

This review discusses Peter Zeihan's book 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder following America's disengagement from the world. The book presents a model for power and wealth creation based on geography, technology, and demographics. Zeihan argues that America has significant advantages in these areas, which will allow it to thrive even as other nations struggle. The review examines Zeihan's analysis of the Bretton Woods system, his predictions for various countries, and potential criticisms of his thesis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey results showing high parental satisfaction among his blog readers, comparing the findings to existing research and discussing their implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey results about parental satisfaction among his blog readers. The survey shows that respondents are overwhelmingly happy with their decision to have children, with a mean satisfaction of 4.43 out of 5. This holds true across genders. When controlling for various factors, the data suggests a trend of increasing life satisfaction with more children. Scott compares these results to existing research, noting similarities and differences. He discusses potential reasons for discrepancies between direct questions about parental happiness and indirect life satisfaction measures. The post also explores correlations between personality traits and parental satisfaction. Scott concludes by reflecting on how these results inform his personal consideration of whether to have children. Shorter summary

The post analyzes Nobel Prize winners per capita, refining the data to show that Israeli Ashkenazi Jews have the highest rate, supporting the theory of their intellectual prowess while raising questions about educational systems and concentration effects. Longer summary

This post analyzes Nobel Prize winners per capita, focusing on Israel and Ashkenazi Jews. It starts by addressing a critique that Israel's Nobel count doesn't support the theory of Ashkenazi Jewish intellectual prowess. The author then refines the analysis by looking at more recent data and specifically at Ashkenazi Jews within Israel. The post shows that when considering only Nobel Prizes since 2000 and focusing on Ashkenazi Israelis, the numbers strongly support the original theory. However, it also notes that many Israeli Nobel winners did their best work abroad, suggesting the Israeli educational system may still be developing. The post concludes by questioning whether concentration of Ashkenazi Jews necessarily leads to more Nobel Prizes, as US Ashkenazi Jews outperform their Israeli counterparts despite lower concentration. Shorter summary

Scott examines the phenomenon of Hungarian scientific geniuses in the early 20th century, attributing it to a high concentration of high-IQ Ashkenazi Jews in Budapest rather than exceptional education. Longer summary

Scott explores the phenomenon of Hungarian scientific geniuses in the early 20th century, initially attributed to exceptional education. He debunks this theory, showing that many of these geniuses were prodigies before formal schooling. Scott then reveals that all these geniuses were Jewish, linking their success to the high IQ of Ashkenazi Jews as explained by Cochran, Hardy, and Harpending's theory. He notes that Hungary, particularly Budapest, had an unusually high concentration of Jews at that time. The post concludes by discussing the tragic end of this golden age due to the Holocaust, and speculates on whether we've lost something unique from that era of scientific progress. Shorter summary

Scott proposes a classified ads thread for readers to post various ads, including personal ads for women and gay people, while he's away at a conference. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces he's away at a conference and won't be blogging. Instead, he proposes a classified ads thread where readers can post ads for jobs, housing, products, websites, and other items. He also allows personal ads from women and gay people, noting that given the demographics of his readership, it might not be worthwhile for straight men to post personal ads. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares results from a 2014 survey of Slate Star Codex readers, detailing demographics, education, income, and views of his blog audience. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of a 2014 survey of Slate Star Codex readers who were not Less Wrong users. The survey covered demographics, education, income, political views, and other characteristics of the blog's audience. Key findings include a predominantly male, white, American readership with high education levels and above-average incomes. The post provides insights into readers' professions, religious views, ethical stances, and political leanings. Scott notes similarities with Less Wrong survey results and mentions a more recent gender-related survey showing an increase in female respondents. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that polyamory's low black representation is part of a broader pattern across many subcultures, proposing general explanations and criticizing how this issue is often weaponized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the claim that polyamory has a problem with underrepresentation of black people. He argues this is part of a broader pattern where many subcultures and interest groups have low black representation, listing numerous examples. He proposes several general factors that likely contribute to this pattern, such as affluence requirements, education levels, and cultural factors. Scott criticizes how underrepresentation is often used disingenuously to attack groups, and expresses frustration that polyamory is being singled out for criticism when the pattern is so widespread. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the complex relationship between contraception and abortion rates, concluding that in societies where contraceptives are already legal, increasing access likely decreases abortion rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the complex relationship between contraception use and abortion rates. He first presents arguments suggesting contraception might increase abortion rates, including the Peltzman effect where safety measures lead to riskier behavior. He then explores evidence that contraception decreases abortion rates, including historical data and controlled studies. Scott concludes that while legalizing contraceptives in a society might initially increase abortion rates as part of a broader cultural shift, in societies where contraceptives are already legal, increasing access likely decreases abortion rates. He especially emphasizes that highly effective contraceptives like implants or RISUG are very likely to reduce abortions when they replace less effective methods. Shorter summary

Scott responds to authors of a Victorian intelligence paper, remaining skeptical of their findings and addressing critiques of his original post on IQ change speeds. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to the authors of a paper on Victorian intelligence who replied to his earlier critique. He remains skeptical of their findings, arguing that the Victorian sample was still more elite than modern comparisons, even when broken down by occupation. Scott also addresses a point from his original critique about the speed of IQ changes, acknowledging some validity to commenters' objections but explaining his reasoning. He concludes by suggesting that concerns about dysgenic effects on IQ may be overblown given the likely timeframe for genetic engineering or transfer to nonbiological life. Shorter summary