Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent $1.4 million fine imposed on Polymarket by the CFTC and its implications for prediction markets. He critiques the US government's approach to prediction markets, arguing it hinders better decision-making. The post explores the potential of prediction markets, what's needed for their success, and the challenges they face. It also touches on the broader implications for cryptocurrency and its original vision of creating censorship-resistant financial products. Shorter summary