Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. He discusses the CFTC's move to further restrict prediction markets, Manifold Markets' pivot to a sweepstakes model, a superforecasting report on COVID-19 origins, and debates about the future and value of forecasting. The post also covers various prediction market probabilities on current events and links to other forecasting news. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes California's AI regulation bill SB1047, finding it reasonably well-designed despite misrepresentations, and ultimately supporting it as a compromise between safety and innovation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines California's proposed AI regulation bill SB1047, which aims to regulate large AI models. He explains that contrary to some misrepresentations, the bill is reasonably well-designed, applying only to very large models and focusing on preventing catastrophic harms like creating weapons of mass destruction or major cyberattacks. Scott addresses various objections to the bill, dismissing some as based on misunderstandings while acknowledging other more legitimate concerns. He ultimately supports the bill, seeing it as a good compromise between safety and innovation, while urging readers to pay attention to the conversation and be wary of misrepresentations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how love embodies libertarian principles and resists regulation, proposing it as a model for libertarian thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes Valentine's Day as a holiday for libertarians, arguing that the way people think about love is the last relic of libertarian thinking. He explores how love operates on principles similar to libertarian ideals, such as non-aggression and resistance to regulation, despite its inherent unfairness and dangers. The post reflects on why people resist regulating love even when it might seem beneficial, and compares this resistance to how people used to think about other aspects of life. Scott also ponders whether love's relative freedom from regulation actually makes it work better, concluding that while love can be disastrous, it retains a unique charm and cultural significance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Manifest prediction market conference, new developments in the field, and recent market activity on current events. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent Manifest conference for prediction market enthusiasts, highlighting key issues such as regulatory challenges, potential applications in hiring, and the use of prediction markets in journalism. He also covers the launch of Manifold.love, a prediction market-based dating site, and analyzes recent prediction market activity on topics like the Gaza hospital explosion and various political events. The post concludes with updates on prediction market developments and related initiatives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a debate on AI development pauses, discussing various strategies and their potential impacts on AI safety and progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes a debate on pausing AI development, outlining five main strategies discussed: Simple Pause, Surgical Pause, Regulatory Pause, Total Stop, and No Pause. He explains the arguments for and against each approach, including considerations like compute overhang, international competition, and the potential for regulatory overreach. The post also covers additional perspectives from debate participants and Scott's own thoughts on the feasibility and implications of various pause strategies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent $1.4 million fine imposed on Polymarket by the CFTC and its implications for prediction markets. He critiques the US government's approach to prediction markets, arguing it hinders better decision-making. The post explores the potential of prediction markets, what's needed for their success, and the challenges they face. It also touches on the broader implications for cryptocurrency and its original vision of creating censorship-resistant financial products. Shorter summary

A review of 'Where's My Flying Car?' by J. Storrs Hall, exploring the causes of technological stagnation and the potential for future progress in flying cars, nuclear energy, and nanotechnology. Longer summary

This book review discusses J. Storrs Hall's 'Where's My Flying Car?', which explores the causes of the Great Stagnation since the 1970s. Hall argues that the stagnation was caused by flatlining energy usage, stemming from a failure to adopt nuclear energy due to excessive regulation driven by 'green fundamentalism'. The review covers Hall's analysis of flying cars, nuclear power, and nanotechnology, detailing how regulation and public funding have hindered progress in these areas. It also touches on Hall's critique of government-funded science and his vision for future technological advancements. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras, detailing its plans, governance, and potential impact while addressing criticisms and limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras. He explains its origins, current status, ambitious plans, governance structure, and potential impact. The post also addresses criticisms and concerns about the project, while acknowledging its limitations and potential benefits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Ezra Klein's concept of 'vetocracy' and its implications for American governance and progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses Ezra Klein's concept of 'vetocracy', which describes the increasing inability of American institutions to build, innovate, or solve problems due to multiple veto points. The post explores whether vetocracy is the same as polarization, why it's happening, and how it relates to increasing regulation. Scott questions why vetocracy hasn't led to a libertarian paradise and considers potential solutions, including the drastic option of creating unchangeable structures as proposed in the crypto world. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional cryptocurrencies and the humorous reasons for their ban by the SEC. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously describes a list of fictional cryptocurrencies banned by the SEC, each with unique and often absurd features. He explains the concept behind each cryptocurrency, ranging from religious-themed coins to those based on communist ideals or vampire slaying. The post then provides comical reasons for why each cryptocurrency was banned, often highlighting potential societal issues or unintended consequences of their implementation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary

Scott argues against Vox's proposal for drug price controls, citing studies that such policies would significantly reduce pharmaceutical innovation and potentially cost millions of life-years long-term. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Sarah Kliff's Vox article about drug pricing, arguing that her proposal for price controls on brand-name drugs would significantly decrease pharmaceutical innovation. He cites multiple economic studies suggesting price controls reduce R&D and new drug development. Scott argues that while price controls might lower costs in the short-term, they could cost millions of life-years long-term by reducing new drug creation. He suggests focusing on increasing generic drug competition and reducing unnecessary prescriptions of expensive brand-name drugs with cheap generic alternatives as better solutions to high drug prices. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and comments on passages from David Friedman's 'The Machinery of Freedom', discussing various libertarian ideas and their implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and comments on various passages from David Friedman's book 'The Machinery of Freedom'. He highlights Friedman's arguments about love, trade, and force as means of cooperation; the historical development of regulation; healthcare costs for the poor; school vouchers; university reform; urban transit solutions; urban renewal; private space exploration; drug regulation; and workers buying out companies. Scott agrees with some points, critiques others, and adds his own insights and examples throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander advocates for a political philosophy combining free markets with social welfare, proposing market-based alternatives to current welfare programs and regulations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a political philosophy that combines free market values with social welfare, which he tentatively calls 'bleeding heart libertarianism' or 'left-libertarianism'. He argues that many current welfare programs disguised as jobs or regulations are inefficient and could be replaced by direct welfare payments. The post presents examples like the BART strike, fast food workers' wage demands, and affirmative action, suggesting market-based alternatives that could be more effective. Alexander concludes that this approach allows for more flexibility and innovation while still addressing social and economic problems through government subsidies and taxes. Shorter summary