The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI-powered forecasting and prediction markets. It covers two academic teams' work on AI forecasting systems, comparing their performance to human forecasters. The post then discusses the potential for developing 'rationality engines' that can answer non-forecasting questions. It also reviews a study on superforecasters' predictions about AI risk, and provides updates on various prediction markets including political events, cryptocurrency, and global conflicts. The post concludes with short links to related articles and developments in the field of forecasting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in prediction markets and AI forecasting. It covers Manifold's bot-based prediction markets, FutureSearch's AI forecasting system, Vitalik Buterin's thoughts on AI and crypto in prediction markets, a Manifold promotional event called 'Bet On Love', and various current market predictions on topics like AI capabilities and political events. The post also includes short links to related articles and forecasting resources. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a visual tour of the Bay Area's eccentricities through a series of photos with humorous commentary. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares a collection of quirky, unusual, and often humorous photos taken around the San Francisco Bay Area, showcasing the region's unique culture, politics, and characters. The post features images of eccentric signs, posters, advertisements, and street art that reflect the area's diverse ideologies, from radical leftist propaganda to cryptocurrency promotions. Scott provides witty commentary on each image, highlighting the peculiarities of Bay Area life and its residents. Shorter summary

The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime. Longer summary

This book review explores 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which examines various types of financial fraud and their implications for the broader economy. The review covers the book's main themes, including the idea that fraud is an equilibrium phenomenon, the importance of trust networks in facilitating fraud, and how complex systems are more vulnerable to exploitation. It discusses the four types of white-collar crime outlined in the book: long firm fraud, counterfeiting, control fraud, and market crimes. The review also highlights the book's insights on how frauds tend to grow over time and the challenges in preventing and prosecuting financial crimes. The reviewer adds their own analysis, particularly on the recent FTX cryptocurrency scandal, which is not covered in the book but fits well with its themes. Shorter summary

Scott explores various technological and market-based approaches to dating and relationships, including prediction markets, matching sites, and cryptocurrency concepts. Longer summary

This post discusses various algorithmic and financial approaches to romance, focusing on prediction markets and other creative solutions. Scott examines Aella's date recommendation market, matching checkbox sites, the Luna cryptocurrency dating site concept, and Peter Thiel's insights on social startups. He also reviews some current prediction markets related to dating and relationships. The post concludes with short links about an arranged marriage project and AI chatbot romance. Shorter summary

A satirical account of a Bay Area house party featuring absurd conversations on tech, culture, and startups, ending with the protagonist's plan to profit from the information gained. Longer summary

This satirical post describes a fictional Bay Area house party, featuring conversations on various tech and cultural topics. It includes discussions about adapting Buddhism for conservatives, a consultant who helps companies be offensive, a new financial product called 'antistocks', debates between a YIMBY, crypto enthusiast, and youth pastor, AI happiness optimization, and a scheme to distract tech billionaires with conferences. The story ends with the protagonist learning about a startup working on immortality through transmissible tumors, and deciding to use this information for financial gain. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the psychopharmacology aspects of the FTX crash, focusing on the medications Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and other FTX employees may have been taking. He examines claims about SBF's use of Emsam (selegiline), modafinil, and other stimulants, explaining their effects and potential risks. Scott also critiques the actions of FTX's company psychiatrist and discusses the broader implications of stimulant use in high-pressure work environments. The post ends with Scott's personal anecdote about testifying as an expert witness. Shorter summary

Scott summarizes interesting comments on his 'Rhythms of the Brain' book review, covering various aspects of brain waves and related topics. Longer summary

This post highlights various comments on Scott's review of 'Rhythms of the Brain'. Topics include explanations of brain waves, their importance in AI and neuroscience, criticisms of their perceived significance, interesting facts about brain rhythms, discussions on phi and conduction delay, perspectives on synchrony, and some tangential discussions on other scientific naming conventions and cryptocurrency. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines several model city projects, including Saudi Arabia's Neom, criticizing its unrealistic plans and discussing other developments in crypto-friendly zones and floating cities. Longer summary

This post discusses several model city projects, focusing on Saudi Arabia's ambitious Neom project, the Catawba Digital Economic Zone, and the Maldives Floating City. Scott critically analyzes Neom's unrealistic plans, including a 170 km long linear city and other grandiose features. He expresses concern about the misuse of Saudi Arabia's oil wealth on this project. The post also covers the Catawba Nation's crypto-friendly economic zone and a planned floating city in the Maldives. Scott concludes with updates on other model city projects and makes predictions about the future of these developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding, exploring various options and challenges. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the technical implementation details of impact markets for charity funding. He discusses various options for structuring the market, pricing certificates, handling founder equity, and addressing legal and ethical concerns. The post examines different approaches to kickstarting such a market, considers potential investors and funders, and concludes with some hybrid design proposals to balance competing interests. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander satirizes Bay Area culture through a fictional house party filled with eccentric characters and outlandish startup ideas. Longer summary

Scott Alexander writes a satirical piece about a stereotypical Bay Area house party, filled with eccentric characters discussing outlandish startup ideas, unconventional philosophies, and bizarre research projects. The narrator moves through the party, encountering various guests including a war insurance startup founder, a cryptocurrency promoter, a secular Buddhist philosopher, an artist lying on beaches, alternative history restaurateurs, and a researcher studying steppe nomad risks. The story pokes fun at Silicon Valley culture, startup culture, and the tendency for seemingly absurd ideas to receive funding, often from Peter Thiel. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary

Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent $1.4 million fine imposed on Polymarket by the CFTC and its implications for prediction markets. He critiques the US government's approach to prediction markets, arguing it hinders better decision-making. The post explores the potential of prediction markets, what's needed for their success, and the challenges they face. It also touches on the broader implications for cryptocurrency and its original vision of creating censorship-resistant financial products. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines recent developments in model cities, including political threats to ZEDEs in Honduras, El Salvador's Bitcoin city plan, and the mysterious Praxis project. Longer summary

This blog post discusses recent developments in model cities and charter cities. It covers the political situation in Honduras affecting ZEDEs, El Salvador's plan for a Bitcoin-themed city, the mysterious Praxis project, and other model city news. The post critically examines each project, analyzing their feasibility, potential impact, and the motivations behind them. Scott Alexander provides context, expresses skepticism where appropriate, and offers insights into the challenges and opportunities these projects face. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made in April 2020 by himself and two other forecasters, Zvi and Bucky. The post compares their predictions on 20 questions related to the pandemic, using a logarithmic scoring system. Scott discusses the results, noting that Zvi performed best, followed by Scott, then Bucky. He reflects on the value of such exercises for identifying biases and areas for improvement in forecasting. The post also includes updates on other prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a satirical list of fictional cryptocurrencies and the humorous reasons for their ban by the SEC. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously describes a list of fictional cryptocurrencies banned by the SEC, each with unique and often absurd features. He explains the concept behind each cryptocurrency, ranging from religious-themed coins to those based on communist ideals or vampire slaying. The post then provides comical reasons for why each cryptocurrency was banned, often highlighting potential societal issues or unintended consequences of their implementation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2018, made at the beginning of the year. He lists each prediction, marking those that came true, those that were false, and those he couldn't determine. Scott then analyzes his performance, presenting a calibration chart and discussing his accuracy at different confidence levels. He notes that he performed poorly on 50% predictions and 95% predictions. Scott attributes some of his inaccuracies to two unexpected events: the cryptocurrency crash and a personal breakup, which affected multiple correlated predictions. He concludes by mentioning he'll post 2019 predictions soon and invites readers to share their own predictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for 2018, covering various topics including US politics, economics, technology, culture wars, the rationalist community, and personal matters. He makes 100 predictions with assigned probabilities, ranging from political outcomes to personal goals. The post includes predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, cryptocurrency prices, SpaceX launches, and the growth of Scott's blog. He also mentions some secret predictions about friends' personal lives. Scott explains his methodology and notes some predictions he already believes may be miscalibrated. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform, discussing its novel features and expressing cautious optimism about its potential, while questioning the necessity of blockchain for its functions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Luna, a blockchain-based dating platform. He discusses its novel features like using cryptocurrency to allocate user attention, incentive alignment for successful matches, and machine learning for better matchmaking. While intrigued by some aspects, he questions the necessity of blockchain technology for the platform. The post explores the potential benefits and pitfalls of such a system, comparing it to existing dating sites and discussing its economic model. Scott expresses hope that Luna isn't a scam, seeing it as potentially representing the best of Silicon Valley innovation if genuine. Shorter summary