Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's Compute-Centric Framework (CCF) for AI takeoff speeds, which models how quickly AI capabilities might progress. The model predicts a gradual but fast takeoff, with AI going from automating 20% of jobs to 100% in about 3 years, reaching superintelligence within a year after that. Scott discusses the key parameters of the model, its implications, and how it compares to other AI forecasting approaches. He notes that while the model predicts a 'gradual' takeoff, it still describes a rapid and potentially dangerous progression of AI capabilities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his tax bill posts, maintains that wealth distribution is more important than growth, and argues the bill likely won't benefit the poor as much as current spending. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses his thoughts on the recent tax bill, responding to criticisms of his previous posts. He admits he was wrong about there being no case for the bill and about CEO statements on using tax cuts. However, he maintains that economic growth is less important than wealth distribution, using an analogy about an effective altruist in a small town. He argues that in societies with high inequality, redistribution can be more beneficial than growth. Scott compares the potential benefits of the tax cut to other uses of government funds, concluding that it likely won't benefit the poor as much as maintaining current spending. He acknowledges some potential errors in his calculations but believes his overall point stands. Shorter summary