Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in forecasting and prediction markets. He covers a new paper on reciprocal scoring for long-term and counterfactual predictions, the performance of prediction markets vs. traditional media in calling election results, a proposal for iterated prediction markets to handle long-term forecasts, and updates on current prediction market probabilities for various events. He also notes the accuracy of past Metaculus predictions about Starlink availability and shares some short items on futurism and expert forecasting. Shorter summary