Scott Alexander explores how straight-line trends on graphs might mask the true impact of interventions, using examples like the Clean Air Act and Moore's Law to illustrate the complexity of interpreting such data. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the difficulty of interpreting trend lines on graphs, particularly when evaluating the effectiveness of interventions or policies. He uses examples like the Clean Air Act, OSHA's impact on workplace safety, and Moore's Law to illustrate how straight-line trends can persist despite significant interventions or technological advancements. The post suggests that these trends might be maintained by control systems, where various factors adjust to keep the trend consistent. This perspective complicates the assessment of policy effectiveness and technological impact, as their effects might be visible in other areas rather than directly on the graph. The author expresses uncertainty about how to distinguish between scenarios where interventions truly don't matter and those where they're part of a complex control system. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes California's water usage, critiques media coverage of the drought, and proposes a market-based solution focused on reducing alfalfa farming. Longer summary

This post analyzes California's water usage and the current drought crisis. Scott breaks down water consumption by sector using data from various sources, comparing it to a family budget for easier comprehension. He then examines recent news stories about water usage, pointing out how some concerns (like fracking and bottled water) are insignificant compared to agricultural use, particularly alfalfa farming. Finally, he discusses the potential for a market-based solution, suggesting that paying alfalfa farmers not to grow their crop could be more cost-effective than current water-saving measures. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from October 2014 with Scott's commentary, covering topics from Russian deforestation to North Korean politics to scientific research. Longer summary

This is a links post where Scott Alexander shares various interesting articles and news items from October 2014. He covers topics ranging from environmental issues in Russia, food safety mishaps, basic income problems, North Korean politics, and scientific research. The post includes both serious topics like sexual assault prevention research and lighter ones like football chants and textbook covers. Scott provides commentary and context for each link, sometimes with his characteristic humor. Shorter summary