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Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.
Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.