Want to dive into Scott Alexander's work and his thousands of blog posts? This fan website lets you sort and do semantic search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Tag: lead-crime hypothesis

Or pick a range
–
min
Blog
Only
Year
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Tags
Browse all 5759
No results found
lead-crime hypothesis (2)
study critique (270)
book review (223)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (90)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
No results found
study critique (270)
book review (223)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (90)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
Links to
 No results found
domain: slatestarcodex.com (1128 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (898 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (562 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (492 posts)
domain: twitter.com / x.com (445 posts)
domain: nih.gov (334 posts)
domain: reddit.com (321 posts)
domain: amazon.com (277 posts)
domain: substack.com (269 posts)
domain: google.com (235 posts)
domain: nytimes.com (229 posts)
domain: wordpress.com (175 posts)
domain: tumblr.com (159 posts)
domain: vox.com (159 posts)
domain: washingtonpost.com (143 posts)
domain: marginalrevolution.com (140 posts)
domain: sciencedirect.com (131 posts)
domain: theguardian.com (130 posts)
subreddit: slatestarcodex (130 posts)
domain: youtube.com (129 posts)
Remember which posts I've read on this device
2 posts
Date
Length
Likes
Comments
study critique (270) data analysis (32) crime statistics (13) crime rates (5) lead-crime hypothesis (2) homicide rates (2) FBI (2)

Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline.

acx
Feb 18, 2026 2,566 words 389 likes 711 comments Listen · 17 min Read Read Opened Opened
study critique (270) crime rates (5) statistical reasoning (4) policing (4) incarceration (3) lead-crime hypothesis (2)

How Likely Are Multifactorial Trends?

Scott Alexander questions the plausibility of multifactorial explanations for trends, using the US crime rate decline as an example, and seeks literature on comparing single-factor vs multi-factor explanations.

ssc
Feb 14, 2015 680 words 0 likes 381 comments Read Read Opened Opened
Per page:
Showing 1 to 2 of 2 results
Get these search results in an EPUB

Your filters match 2 posts.

Posts to include
–
Leave empty to keep the defaults. Range cannot exceed 500 posts.
Download now

Generates an EPUB right now and downloads it to your device.

Send to email

Generates an EPUB in the background and emails you a temporary download link.

Your email is not shared with anyone.

Email address

To send to your Kindle, just use this link.