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Jul 08, 2022
acx

Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike

35 min • 4,806 words • 456 comments • 105 likes • podcast (33 min)
Scott Alexander defends his analysis of the 2020 US homicide spike against various counterarguments, maintaining that it was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous post about the 2020 homicide spike in the US. He addresses several counterarguments and alternative explanations, including the role of increased gun sales, racial differences in homicide rates, the exact timing of the spike, changes in policing behavior, media coverage, academic literature on the topic, and potential effects of warm weather. Scott largely maintains his original position that the spike was primarily caused by changes in policing following protests, rather than other factors like the pandemic or increased gun ownership. Shorter summary
Jun 29, 2022
acx

Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko

69 min • 9,632 words • 537 comments • 65 likes • podcast (65 min)
Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates. Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlights from reader comments on Scott Alexander's review of the book 'San Fransicko'. It covers various topics related to homelessness, crime, and urban policy in San Francisco and other cities. The comments provide additional context, personal anecdotes, data analysis, and critiques of both the book and Scott's review. Key themes include the complexity of homelessness, issues with crime statistics, debates over housing policy, and differing perspectives on how to address urban problems. Shorter summary
Feb 14, 2015
ssc

How Likely Are Multifactorial Trends?

5 min • 680 words • 381 comments
Scott Alexander questions the plausibility of multifactorial explanations for trends, using the US crime rate decline as an example, and seeks literature on comparing single-factor vs multi-factor explanations. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the plausibility of multifactorial trends, using the decline in US crime rates as an example. He presents two perspectives: one arguing that complex phenomena like crime are likely caused by many small factors, and another suggesting that simultaneous changes in multiple factors is improbable. Scott leans towards the second perspective, questioning the likelihood of ten different factors each accounting for about 10% of the crime decline. He asks if there are ways to calculate the relative likelihood of single-factor versus multi-factor explanations, noting that he feels he's missing an existing body of literature on this topic. Shorter summary