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market efficiency (2)
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study critique (270)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
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2 posts
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) calibration (23) Polymarket (10) betting (7) election (3) Bayes' Theorem (2) market efficiency (2)

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

acx
Nov 7, 2024 2,993 words 248 likes 647 comments Listen · 18 min Read Read
economics (105) humor (49) risk assessment (15) skepticism (11) economic theory (8) market efficiency (2)

Money On The Ground

Scott Alexander defends an economic principle often mocked in jokes, explaining its validity when applied to long-standing, seemingly obvious financial opportunities.

ssc
Jun 19, 2014 220 words 0 likes 57 comments Read Read
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