Scott Alexander endorses Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, arguing against Trump's authoritarianism while acknowledging and countering arguments that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses Kamala Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, recommending Harris in swing states and Harris or a third-party candidate in safe states. He argues against Trump primarily on the grounds of authoritarianism, comparing the threat to Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Scott acknowledges the strongest counter-argument that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian, but ultimately rejects it for four reasons: the importance of punishing clear norm violations, current political headwinds favoring the right, personal integrity, and Trump's own authoritarian tendencies. The post ends with a reflection on the psychological tendency to view elections as a two-character drama between oneself and the Democratic Party, urging readers to consider the full comparison between candidates. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary