Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence for and against Vitamin D's effectiveness in preventing or treating COVID-19. He reviews various studies, including observational data, randomized controlled trials, and Mendelian randomization studies. While some evidence suggests a potential link between Vitamin D levels and COVID-19 outcomes, Scott ultimately leans towards skepticism. He discusses possible confounding factors and methodological issues in some of the positive studies. Despite his skepticism, Scott acknowledges the low risk of Vitamin D supplementation and suggests it may still be beneficial for other reasons. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the projected drop in DC's high school graduation rates, exploring various explanations and comparing DC to other states, ultimately suggesting widespread inflation of graduation rates elsewhere. Longer summary

This post discusses the projected drop in high school graduation rates in Washington DC from 73% to 42%. Scott examines possible explanations, including incompetent administration, unique challenges due to demographics, and overcorrection from previous fraud. He analyzes test scores and compares DC to other states, finding that DC's scores, while low, don't justify such a low graduation rate. Scott suggests that many other cities might be using fraud and low standards to inflate their graduation rates, and that DC's projected rate might be an overcorrection that unfairly penalizes students. He hopes DC will find ways to graduate more students to align with national norms. Shorter summary