Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance. Longer summary

Scott discusses a contract dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon, where the Pentagon is attempting to renegotiate their original agreement to remove Anthropic's Usage Policy restrictions and gain access to AI for 'all lawful purposes.' Anthropic has resisted, requesting guarantees against mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous killbots, which the Pentagon refused. The Pentagon has threatened various consequences including designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk'—an unprecedented use of a designation previously only applied to foreign adversaries. Scott argues strongly in support of Anthropic's position, viewing the Pentagon's tactics as authoritarian overreach. He addresses numerous counterarguments in detail, explains why the Pentagon should simply switch to another AI vendor, and praises the widespread support Anthropic has received from across the political spectrum and the tech industry. Shorter summary