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Brier score (2)
study critique (270)
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study critique (270)
book review (221)
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economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
debate (87)
science (85)
AI safety (78)
media criticism (76)
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psychology (72)
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2 posts
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study critique (270) prediction markets (88) statistical analysis (53) Metaculus (34) AI capabilities (22) AI progress (15) AI forecasting (11) superforecasting (8) chess (5) Brier score (2) Samotsvety Forecasting (2)

Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

acx
Aug 3, 2026 3,865 words 183 likes 171 comments Listen · 24 min Read Read
calibration (23) probability (16) statistical methods (3) scoring rules (2) Brier score (2) measurement (2)

Looking for information on scoring calibration

Scott asks whether there's an accepted method for measuring calibration separately from domain knowledge, noting that common scoring rules conflate the two.

lw
Jan 29, 2011 221 words 12 likes 14 comments Read Read
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