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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) journalism (17) AI forecasting (11) superforecasters (6) pandemic (4) FutureSearch (3) lab leak hypothesis (2) Preseen (2)

Top Forecasters On The Plague

Scott examines forecasts about a plague death at a Russian lab, finding that top human and AI forecasters all assign very low probabilities (under 1%) to a significant outbreak, demonstrating the value of technical forecasting over mainstream reporting.

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Oct 7, 2026 1,019 words 339 likes 142 comments Read Read Opened Opened
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