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Eliezer Yudkowsky (42) Bayesian reasoning (26) epistemology (17) probability (16) argument evaluation (5) creationism (4) confidence levels (2)

Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

Scott distinguishes between an argument's internal confidence level and our external confidence in that argument, showing that extremely high probability claims should be moderated by the baseline probability that the argument itself is flawed.

lw
Dec 16, 2010 1,981 words 248 likes 192 comments Read Read
rationality (71) placebo effect (23) akrasia (11) self-deception (11) Scott Adams (6) belief formation (5) stereotype threat (4) confidence levels (2) subconscious influences (2)

What I Tell You Three Times Is True

Scott argues that affirmations (repeatedly stating goals aloud) might actually work based on evidence that subconscious beliefs affect success and that verbal repetition influences subconscious beliefs, though he acknowledges this needs proper scientific study.

lw
May 2, 2009 1,379 words 60 likes 32 comments Read Read
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