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study critique (270)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1128 posts)
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2 posts
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) US politics (32) political strategy (10) Democratic Party (6) Joe Biden (2) cognitive decline (2) elections (2)

Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election.

acx
Jul 2, 2024 4,750 words 186 likes 773 comments Listen · 24 min Read Read Opened Opened
prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) climate change (33) Joe Biden (2) policy proposals (2) political accountability (2)

Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets

Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example.

acx
Jun 7, 2021 877 words 116 likes 201 comments Listen · 8 min Read Read Opened Opened
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