Scott Alexander challenges Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work by analyzing health insurance studies and presenting evidence of medicine's effectiveness. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques Robin Hanson's claim that medicine doesn't work, analyzing three major health insurance experiments (RAND, Oregon, and Karnataka) and other studies. He argues that these studies are underpowered to detect medication effects and don't support Hanson's conclusion, citing evidence of medicine's effectiveness in improving survival rates for various diseases. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary