Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary

The post explores the complex relationship between smoking and schizophrenia, critiquing conflicting studies and cautioning against hasty conclusions about nicotine's effects on schizophrenia risk. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between smoking and schizophrenia. It starts by noting the high prevalence of smoking among schizophrenics and discusses various theories for this, including the self-medication hypothesis. The author then analyzes two conflicting studies on whether smoking causes or prevents schizophrenia. One study suggests smoking increases risk, while another, which controls for confounders, indicates smoking may decrease risk. The post criticizes how the first study, despite being newer, ignores the contradictory findings of the second study. The author expresses frustration with this scientific approach and cautions against pushing people at risk of schizophrenia away from nicotine without stronger evidence. The post ends by noting that smoking definitely decreases Parkinson's Disease risk and reiterating that tobacco smoking is still harmful overall. Shorter summary