Scott examines whether reported increases in "crime" actually reflect concerns about "disorder" (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments), finding that most disorder metrics are either stable or down from historical highs, contradicting narratives of societal collapse. Longer summary

Scott investigates the theory that public concern about rising crime is actually proxy concern about rising disorder (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments, boom boxes). He systematically examines data for each type of disorder and finds that most are either down from historical highs or only modestly increased from recent lows. Litter is down since the 1970s, graffiti is unclear but likely down in most places, shoplifting is up 20% from lows but still below 1990s levels, and homelessness is up 25% but equal to 1990s levels. He proposes four theories for why people perceive disorder as rising: the small 2020 bump, white people returning to cities through gentrification, romanticization of the unique 1930s-1960s crime minimum, and different forms of disorder in past versus present. Scott concludes by distinguishing between specific, evidence-based concerns about particular problems versus vague civilizational collapse narratives, arguing the former is both more accurate and more conducive to normal life. Shorter summary

Scott invites readers to ask questions that will be answered by Claude 4.6 Opus to demonstrate current AI capabilities and test whether AI skeptics underestimate what paid-tier AI can do. Longer summary

Scott Alexander invites his readers to ask questions that will be answered by Claude 4.6 Opus, the most capable paid-tier AI model, to test the theory that AI skeptics underestimate AI capabilities because they don't pay for premium access. He suggests asking real questions that are too hard to Google immediately but not beyond human knowledge, and promises to show the first result he gets without cherry-picking. The post includes rules for both questioners and Scott himself, including a note that he's configured Claude to think hard and do web searches rather than rely on memory. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the misconception of utilitarianism, arguing that many common political actions are more ethically questionable than his own 'utilitarian' views. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the perception of utilitarianism and how it's often misunderstood. He argues that many common political actions, which violate ethical rules for a supposed greater good, are not seen as utilitarian. Meanwhile, his own views labeled as 'utilitarian' are often less extreme. He suggests this disparity stems from people's discomfort with applying calculations to morality, rather than from the actual ethical implications of different actions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism by highlighting its major accomplishments and arguing that its occasional missteps are outweighed by its positive impact on the world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends effective altruism (EA) against recent criticisms, highlighting its accomplishments in global health, animal welfare, AI safety, and other areas. He argues that EA has saved around 200,000 lives, equivalent to ending gun violence, curing AIDS, and preventing a 9/11-scale attack in the US. Scott contends that EA's achievements are often overlooked because they focus on less publicized causes, and that the movement's occasional missteps are minor compared to its positive impact. He emphasizes that EA is a coalition of people who care about logically analyzing important causes, whether broadly popular or not, and encourages readers to investigate and support the most beneficial causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how public predictions are judged over time, using examples like Nostradamus and Fukuyama to illustrate common pitfalls and offer advice on making predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of how people's predictions are judged over time, using Nostradamus and Francis Fukuyama as contrasting examples. He discusses how Nostradamus's vague prophecies are often interpreted as accurate in hindsight, while Fukuyama's 'end of history' thesis is frequently declared wrong whenever significant events occur. The post then analyzes other public figures' predictions and their reception, before offering advice on how to make predictions that won't damage one's credibility or cause personal misery. Scott concludes by acknowledging that he wants to make more predictions himself, while warning aspiring thought leaders about the challenges of public prediction-making. Shorter summary

A satirical series of encounters between a Prophet and various Bishops, exploring the contradictions in religious leadership and public perception. Longer summary

This satirical post presents a series of vignettes featuring a Prophet encountering various Bishops in different cities, each struggling with the balance between appearance and reality in their religious roles. The Prophet's advice is consistently inconsistent, highlighting the absurdity of trying to please everyone while maintaining a perfect image. The story culminates with the Prophet critiquing God's PR strategy in Heaven, turning the 'Caesar's wife' idiom on its head. Through these interactions, the post explores themes of hypocrisy, moral hazard, and the often contradictory expectations placed on religious leaders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander clarifies his intentions behind the APA photo-essay and cautions against overly negative interpretations of psychiatry or any professional field based on selective criticism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander addresses the unexpected negative reactions to his previous APA photo-essay, which was intended as a lighthearted critique rather than a condemnation of psychiatry. He draws parallels between the tech industry and psychiatry, noting how both can be unfairly portrayed through selective reporting of their worst aspects. Scott emphasizes that while there are issues in psychiatry, the field also includes many dedicated professionals doing important work. He encourages readers to be skeptical of overly critical portrayals of any field, including his own writings, invoking the concept of Gell-Mann Amnesia. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the fate of 1990s environmental concerns, finding a mix of solved problems, exaggerated issues, and ongoing challenges that have faded from public attention. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the environmental concerns of the 1990s, examining what happened to issues like air and water pollution, acid rain, rainforest deforestation, endangered species, landfill space, peak resource, and whale conservation. He finds that some problems were solved, some were exaggerated, and others continue but receive less attention. The post explores why certain environmental issues fade from public consciousness, considering factors like problem-solving, alarmism, shifting focus to climate change, and changes in societal attitudes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that media criticism of Silicon Valley based on products like Juicero ignores the significant innovative and altruistic work being done in the tech hub. Longer summary

Scott Alexander criticizes the media's portrayal of Silicon Valley as being solely focused on frivolous products like the Juicero juicer. He argues that while such products exist, they are not representative of the majority of Silicon Valley's work. He provides examples of important and innovative projects in areas like medical research, renewable energy, and space exploration. Alexander analyzes Y Combinator and Andreessen Horowitz portfolios to show that most startups are focused on serious business solutions or altruistic goals. He theorizes that people's perception of Silicon Valley is influenced by their own interests and experiences, leading to different views of what the tech hub 'does'. He concludes by arguing that Silicon Valley's mistakes are less harmful than those of other influential sectors, and that its capacity for innovation should be appreciated and protected. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Trump's likely PR strategy as president, predicting a focus on symbolic 'job-saving' victories that will be effective in shaping public perception despite limited real impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander expresses concern about Trump's PR strategy as president, focusing on highly publicized 'victories' in keeping jobs in the US. He argues that these will be largely symbolic, not scalable, and potentially corrupt, but effective in shaping public perception. Scott compares this to Batman's approach of personally fighting crime rather than using his resources for systemic change. He predicts that this strategy will be a central part of Trump's public relations over the next year, despite not significantly impacting overall job numbers. Shorter summary