Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Grants program, detailing its structure, funding, and new optional 'impact market' component for charitable and scientific projects. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Grants program, a microgrants initiative to fund charitable or scientific projects. He explains the program's structure, including a partnership with Manifund, the funding amount ($320,000 total), timeline, application process, and types of projects likely to be funded. This year introduces an optional 'impact market' component, allowing unfunded projects to seek alternative funding through impact certificates. Scott also discusses the benefits of winning a grant beyond the monetary aspect and touches on tax implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that probabilities should not be used without well-defined models. He presents scenarios where probability judgments are necessary even in novel situations, such as alien contact or evaluating research proposals. The post discusses the importance of making probability estimates in real-world decisions, even when precise models are unavailable. Scott acknowledges some valid criticisms but ultimately argues that using probabilities allows for better decision-making, accuracy checking, and challenging overconfidence. He suggests that alternatives to probabilistic thinking fall short when faced with real-world choices. Shorter summary