2014 Predictions: Calibration Results
Last year in January I made some predictions for 2014 and gave my calibration level for each. Time to see how I did. Ones in black were successes, ones in red were failures.
1. Obamacare will survive the year mostly intact: 80%
2. US does not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 90%
3. Syria’s civil war will not end this year (unstable cease-fire doesn’t count as “end”): 60%
4. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 70%
5. US official unemployment rate will be 7% in Dec 2014: 80% 6. Republicans will keep the House in US midterm elections: 80% 7. Democrats will keep the Senate in US midterm elections: 60%
8. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 80%
9. Iraq’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 60%
10. China’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99%
11. US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99%
12. Egypt’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 60%
13. Israel-Palestine negotiations remain blocked, no obvious plan for Palestinian independence: 99%
14. Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 95%
15. Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early): 90%
16. Putin will remain President of Russia at end of 2014: 95%
17. Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014: 95%
18. No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014: 99%
19. No terrorist attack in USA killing > 100 people: 90%
20. No mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people: 50%
21. Republic of Shireroth will not officially disband or obviously die before end of 2014: 90%
22. Republic of Shireroth will remain in Bastion Union: 80%
23. Active population of Shireroth on last 2014 census will be between 10 and 20: 70%
24. Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014: 70%
25. Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013: 60%
26. At least one 2014 Slate Star Codex post will get > 10,000 hits total: 80%
27. No 2014 Slate Star Codex post will get > 100,000 hits total: 90%
28. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will show higher population than 2013 Survey conditional on similar methodology: 80%
29. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will show population 2000 C.O.S.M.: 70% 30. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey: 70%
31. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have 20% female: 90% 32. HPMoR will conclude in 2014: 80%
33. At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014: 50%
34. No LW post > 100 karma by me: 80%
35. CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014: 90%
36. MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014: 99%
37. MetaMed will continue operating in end of 2014: 80%
38. None of Eliezer, Luke, Anna, or Julia will quit their respective organizations: 60%
39. No one in LW community will become world-famous (let’s say >= Peter Thiel) for anything they accomplish this year: 80%
40. MIRI will not announce it is actively working on coding a Friendly AI (not just a few bits and pieces thereof) before the end of 2014: 99%
41. I will remain at my same job through the end of 2014: 95%
42. I will get a score at >95th percentile for my year on PRITE: 70%
43. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2014: 20%
44. I will not break up with any of my current girlfriends through the end of 2014: 50%
45. I will not get any new girlfriends in 2014: 50%
46. I will not be engaged by the end of 2014: 80%
47. I will be living with Ozy by the end of 2014: 80%
48. I will take nootropics on average at least once/week through the second half of 2014: 50%
49. I will not manage to meditate at least 100 days in 2014: 80%
50. I will attend NYC Solstice ritual: 60%
51. I will arrange some kind of Michigan Solstice Ritual: 50%
52. I will not publicly identify as religious (> atheist) by the end of 2014: 95%
53. I will not publicly identify as neoreactionary or conservative (> liberal or libertarian) by the end of 2014: 70%
54. I will not publicly identify as leftist or communist (> liberal or libertarian) by the end of 2014: 80%
55. I will get a Tumblr in 2014: 50%
56. I will not delete/abandon either my Facebook or Twitter accounts: 60%
57. I will have less than 1000 Twitter followers by the end of 2014: 60%
58. When Eliezer sends me a copy of “Perfect Health Diet”, I will not be convinced that it is more correct or useful than the best mainstream nutrition advice (eg Stephen Guyenet’s blog): 70%
59. I will end up being underconfident on these predictions: 50%
Of predictions at the 50% level, 4/8 (50%) were correct
Of predictions at the 60% level, 7/9 (77%) were correct
Of predictions at the 70% level, 6/8 (75%) were correct
Of predictions at the 80% level, 12/15 (80%) were correct
Of predictions at the 90% level, 7-0 (100%) were correct
Of predictions at the 95% level, 5-0 (100%) were correct
Of predictions at the 99% level, 6-0 (100%) were correct
I declare myself to be impressively well-calibrated. You should all trust me about everything.
2015 predictions coming soon.