Scott Alexander argues against the fear of a chatbot propaganda apocalypse, presenting several reasons why its impact would be limited and offering predictions for 2030. Longer summary

Scott Alexander expresses skepticism about the chatbot propaganda apocalypse, a concern that AI-powered chatbots could be used to spread disinformation at scale. He argues that the impact of such bots would be limited due to existing social and technological anti-bot filters, fear of backlash, and the likelihood that establishment narratives would benefit more than disinformation. Scott suggests that crypto scams are a more likely use for chatbots than political propaganda. He acknowledges that chatbots might decrease serendipitous friendships but also considers potential positive outcomes if chatbots become good at social interactions. The post concludes with several predictions about the impact of chatbots on online discourse by 2030. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a list of predictions for 2022 covering various topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, personal life, and his blog. He assigns probabilities to each prediction. The post also includes predictions from Vox and Matt Yglesias, which Scott comments on and adjusts based on his own views. The post ends with an announcement of a prediction contest for readers, based on the same set of questions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets. Longer summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2021 predictions, made at the beginning of the year. He lists 108 predictions on various topics including politics, economics, technology, COVID-19, community events, personal life, work, and his blog. The post details which predictions came true (in bold) and which didn't (in italics). Scott then analyzes his performance, breaking down the accuracy rates for different confidence levels. He compares his results to a graph of expected vs. actual accuracy, finding he was slightly underconfident overall. The post concludes with a comparison to other forecasters and prediction markets, showing Scott performed well but was outperformed by both Zvi and the markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year, covering a wide range of topics including US politics, world events, economics, technology, COVID-19, community matters, personal life, work-related issues, and his blog. The post includes over 100 predictions with percentage probabilities assigned to each. Scott emphasizes that the purpose of these predictions is to calibrate his ability to assess his own knowledge and certainty, rather than to demonstrate expertise on the topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2020, comparing them to actual outcomes. He analyzes his performance in different confidence levels, noting that he was consistently overconfident this year, particularly in the 50% and 95% categories. Scott attributes some of his errors to unexpected events like the prolonged COVID lockdown and the NYT situation. He reflects on whether this overconfidence in an unusually eventful year might balance out his slight underconfidence in more normal years. The post concludes with plans for future prediction exercises and a link to his ongoing prediction log. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the current state and future predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. He outlines the past waves of infections, predicts future waves due to new virus strains, analyzes vaccine efficacy against these strains, and speculates on how the pandemic might eventually transition to an endemic seasonal illness like the flu. He also touches on potential long-term societal changes and makes several specific predictions about future developments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual list of predictions for the upcoming year (2020). The post includes 100 predictions on various topics including coronavirus, politics, economics, technology, his blog Slate Star Codex, personal life, and professional life. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from global events to personal goals, with some entries redacted for privacy reasons. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year (2019). The post includes 118 predictions covering various topics such as US politics, economics, technology, world events, and personal matters. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions range from political outcomes (e.g., Trump's presidency, Democratic primaries) to economic indicators (e.g., Bitcoin prices, stock market performance) and personal goals. Many personal predictions are redacted to protect privacy. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2018, made at the beginning of the year. He lists each prediction, marking those that came true, those that were false, and those he couldn't determine. Scott then analyzes his performance, presenting a calibration chart and discussing his accuracy at different confidence levels. He notes that he performed poorly on 50% predictions and 95% predictions. Scott attributes some of his inaccuracies to two unexpected events: the cryptocurrency crash and a personal breakup, which affected multiple correlated predictions. He concludes by mentioning he'll post 2019 predictions soon and invites readers to share their own predictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for 2018, covering various topics including US politics, economics, technology, culture wars, the rationalist community, and personal matters. He makes 100 predictions with assigned probabilities, ranging from political outcomes to personal goals. The post includes predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, cryptocurrency prices, SpaceX launches, and the growth of Scott's blog. He also mentions some secret predictions about friends' personal lives. Scott explains his methodology and notes some predictions he already believes may be miscalibrated. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes 105 predictions for 2017 on various topics including world events, European politics, economics, the Trump administration, online communities, his work, and personal life. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from geopolitical events to personal milestones, each assigned a probability. The post is structured as a numbered list, with predictions grouped into categories such as 'World Events', 'Europe', 'Economics', 'Trump Administration', 'Communities', 'Work', and 'Personal'. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents his predictions for 2016, covering a wide range of topics from world events to personal matters. He assigns probabilities to each prediction, indicating his level of confidence. The predictions span various areas including global politics, economics, technology, and personal life events. Scott also mentions other bloggers who are making similar yearly predictions with probabilities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2014, made at the start of that year, and evaluates his calibration. He lists 59 predictions covering various topics including politics, world events, personal life, and the rationalist community. Each prediction is marked as a success or failure. Scott then provides a breakdown of his accuracy at different confidence levels, from 50% to 99%. The results show that he was well-calibrated across all levels, with perfect accuracy for predictions at 90% confidence and above. He concludes by declaring himself 'impressively well-calibrated' and jokingly suggests that he should be trusted about everything. The post ends with a mention that 2015 predictions will be coming soon. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander lists 60 predictions for 2014 across global events, online communities, and personal life, assigning probabilities to each. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes a series of predictions for the year 2014, covering global events, online community developments, and personal matters. The predictions are assigned probabilities ranging from 50% to 99%. Global predictions include topics like Obamacare, wars, Bitcoin prices, and election outcomes. Online community predictions focus on various internet forums and organizations like Less Wrong, CFAR, and MIRI. Personal predictions cover Scott's job, relationships, lifestyle choices, and ideological stances. The post is structured as a list of predictions with associated probabilities, demonstrating Scott's interest in forecasting and rationality. Shorter summary