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AI safety (77) AI alignment (37) superintelligence (25) AI development (23) technological progress (20) AI regulation (16) economic growth (15) AI policy (12) China-US relations (8) AI governance (7) future scenarios (5) Daniel Kokotajlo (5) compute requirements (4) international cooperation (3) AI control (2) AI Futures Project (2) chip manufacturing (2)

Introducing Plan A

Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040.

acx

Jul 9, 2026 4,971 words 485 likes 804 comments Listen · 32 min Read Read

prediction markets (87) AI alignment (37) Metaculus (34) AI capabilities (22) decision-making (15) AI policy (12) AI forecasting (11) Kalshi (9) superforecasting (8) Philip Tetlock (3) FutureSearch (3) Preseen (2) financial markets (2) human vs AI performance (2)

The AI Superforecasters Are Here

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

acx

Jul 2, 2026 5,984 words 583 likes 331 comments Listen · 42 min Read Read

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