Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the 'vibecession' - the paradox where economic indicators show improvement but consumer sentiment is terrible, particularly among young people who feel permanently locked out of opportunity. He systematically examines various proposed explanations including declining wages, housing costs, inflation miscalculation, inequality, and debt, finding that none fully explain the phenomenon. His analysis suggests the crisis may be partly real (increased effort required for same outcomes, concentration of jobs in expensive cities, recent mortgage increases) but also partly driven by increasingly negative media coverage and changing consumption patterns toward more conspiratorial sources. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary