Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts. Longer summary

This post covers various prediction markets and forecasting topics. It starts with Metaculus predictions on Puerto Rico statehood, Jeff Bezos' potential investment in anti-aging, crypto site defaults, and the population of Prospera. The author then discusses Polymarket, comparing its liquidity to PredictIt for the NYC mayoral race. The post also analyzes a study on forecasting accuracy from PredictionBook, showing that more experienced predictors perform better and that longer-term predictions are often more accurate. Finally, the author addresses the current debate on inflation predictions, calling for more precise and accountable forecasts from economists and pundits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander follows up on his critique of a book about the Baumol effect, presenting data that challenges the book's claims about rising wages driving cost increases in education and healthcare. Longer summary

Scott Alexander follows up on his review of Tabarrok and Helland's book about the Baumol effect and rising costs in education and healthcare. He expresses disappointment with Tabarrok's response to his critique and further explores the issues. Scott presents data showing that wages in high-productivity sectors and for doctors and teachers have not risen as much as claimed, which challenges the book's central thesis. He also clarifies his understanding of how the Baumol effect can make things less affordable for individuals even if not for society as a whole. The post analyzes various data sources and graphs to support these points, maintaining a critical stance towards the original book's arguments. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his previous post comparing basic income to basic job guarantee programs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to various comments on his previous post about basic income vs. basic jobs. He covers topics like different countries' experiences with job guarantee programs, potential issues with UBI implementation, economic considerations, and philosophical arguments for and against UBI and basic jobs. The post aims to provide a balanced view of the debate by highlighting thoughtful comments from multiple perspectives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the phenomenon of cost disease, where costs for basic services like education and healthcare have increased dramatically without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of cost disease, where costs for essential services like education, healthcare, and housing have increased significantly over the past few decades without corresponding improvements in quality or wages. He presents data showing how these costs have risen much faster than inflation, while worker salaries in these fields have remained stagnant or even declined. Alexander considers various potential explanations for this phenomenon, including market failures, increased regulation, lawsuit fears, and changing risk tolerance. He argues that this cost disease is a major factor behind many current political and economic debates, and expresses concern about its impact on living standards and economic progress. Shorter summary