Scott explores the recent British economic decline, examining various statistics and theories about its causes and impact. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent economic decline in Britain, analyzing various statistics and theories about its causes. Scott examines GDP data, productivity trends, wage stagnation, and currency value changes, while considering factors like Brexit, real estate market issues, and R&D investment. He presents different perspectives from commenters and experts, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the difficulty in pinpointing exact causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a Bayesian theory of willpower as a process of weighing evidence from different mental processes to determine actions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a new Bayesian theory of willpower, disagreeing with previous models like glucose depletion, opportunity cost minimization, and mental agent conflicts. He suggests willpower is a process of weighing evidence from different mental processes: a prior on motionlessness, reinforcement learning, and conscious calculations. The basal ganglia then resolves this evidence to determine actions. Scott explores how this model explains the effects of dopaminergic drugs on willpower and discusses implications for understanding mental illness and productivity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book attributing rising service costs to the Baumol effect, finding it convincing but raising some concerns about conflicting data and affordability issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Why Are The Prices So D*mn High?' by economists Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland, which attributes rising costs in services like healthcare and education to the Baumol effect. The authors argue that as productivity increases in some sectors, wages rise across all sectors, making labor-intensive services relatively more expensive. Scott finds their case convincing but raises some concerns, including data on stagnant real wages, conflicting information on professional salaries, and the apparent decrease in affordability of services like education, which the Baumol effect shouldn't cause. He seeks further clarification on these points to fully accept the Baumol effect as the primary explanation for cost disease. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'pulling goals' (driven by specific desires) and 'pushing goals' (driven by existing structures), expressing his preference for the former and strategies to deal with the latter. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the distinction between 'pulling goals' and 'pushing goals'. Pulling goals are when you want to achieve something specific and create a plan, while pushing goals are when you have a structure but are trying to figure out what to do with it. He gives examples of both, such as studying to cure cancer (pulling) versus doing a research project just to graduate (pushing). Scott expresses his dislike for pushing goals, finding them potentially dishonest and often a sign that something has gone wrong. He argues that pushing goals can lead to confusion about one's true motivations and often result in inferior outcomes. The post concludes with Scott's personal strategy of keeping lists of things he wants to pull, to use when faced with pushing situations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why life hacks don't seem to reach universal adoption in society, despite potential competitive advantages. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of life hacks reaching fixation in society, similar to how beneficial mutations reach fixation in genetics or how new technologies become widespread. He notes that despite the competitive nature of human society, he can't think of any life hacks that have reached universal adoption. He proposes several explanations for this, including the possibility that there are no exceptionally good life hacks, that life hacks are too individualized to reach fixation, or that useful life hacks that have reached fixation are no longer recognized as such. He grudgingly accepts some examples like organizational tools and 'diet and exercise', but notes these don't fit the typical image of a life hack. The post ends with an edit accepting caffeine as a possible example of a life hack reaching fixation. Shorter summary

Scott attempts to test a productivity hack using calligraphy study, but discovers calligraphy itself is captivating, leaving the experiment inconclusive. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously recounts his attempt to test a productivity hack starting with 'M' using calligraphy study as a metric. He ends up spending seven hours studying calligraphy uninterrupted during the day, and another five hours late at night. Scott concludes that calligraphy is inherently fascinating, rendering his experiment inconclusive about the effectiveness of the productivity technique. Shorter summary