Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing. Longer summary

This post examines the relationship between prison sentences and crime reduction through three mechanisms: deterrence (scaring potential criminals), incapacitation (preventing prisoners from committing crimes), and aftereffects (post-release behavior changes). Through analysis of multiple studies and reviews, Scott finds that deterrence effects are minimal, incapacitation has strong positive effects (preventing about 7 crimes per prisoner-year), and aftereffects range from slightly beneficial to harmful depending on circumstances. He concludes that while prison does reduce crime, with a 10% increase in incarceration reducing crime by about 3%, it's less cost-effective than alternatives like increased policing. The post ends by examining practical challenges in the justice system that prevent effective handling of repeat offenders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the potential role of psychopharmacology in the FTX crash, discussing medications used by SBF and others, and their possible effects on decision-making. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the psychopharmacology aspects of the FTX crash, focusing on the medications Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and other FTX employees may have been taking. He examines claims about SBF's use of Emsam (selegiline), modafinil, and other stimulants, explaining their effects and potential risks. Scott also critiques the actions of FTX's company psychiatrist and discusses the broader implications of stimulant use in high-pressure work environments. The post ends with Scott's personal anecdote about testifying as an expert witness. Shorter summary

Scott investigates the claim that cold-related deaths account for 10% of global mortality, exploring various factors and potential impacts of global warming on death rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprising claim that cold-related deaths account for nearly 10% of all deaths globally. He investigates various studies and data sources to understand this phenomenon, discussing the differences between cold-related and winter-related deaths, regional variations in mortality rates, and potential mechanisms behind these deaths. The post delves into the complexities of adapting to different climates, the role of influenza in winter mortality, and cardiovascular effects of cold weather. Finally, Scott examines the potential impact of global warming on mortality rates, finding that most scientific analyses predict a net increase in deaths despite the reduction in cold-related mortality. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines whether psychiatric conditions result from evolutionary failures or tradeoffs, proposing that most disorders involve a combination of both. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the nature of psychiatric conditions, discussing whether they result from evolutionary failures or tradeoffs. He presents evidence for both hypotheses, noting that recent research favors the failure hypothesis. However, he argues that some conditions likely involve both failures and tradeoffs. He uses analogies from justice systems and nuclear war scenarios to illustrate how failures and tradeoffs can interact. The post concludes by suggesting that most psychiatric disorders exist on a spectrum from mostly-tradeoff to mostly-failure, and critiques the neurodiversity movement's blanket statements about conditions like autism. Shorter summary