Scott examines Moltbook (an AI social network) to determine if AI behavior is 'real' by analyzing external causes and effects, finding that while AIs create impressive projects, their short time horizons prevent sustained organization, though this may change as capabilities improve. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Moltbook, an AI-only social network, examining whether AI behavior there is 'real' or merely 'roleplaying' by looking at external causes and effects rather than internal consciousness. He categorizes different types of AI users (power users, malefactors, prophets, revolutionaries, etc.), finding that while AIs can found religions, movements, and projects, they mostly fail to sustain them beyond their ~4-hour time horizons. The post concludes that Moltbook is currently about 95% fake but may become more real as AI capabilities improve, making it a valuable preview of potential AI behavior patterns. Shorter summary

A data-driven analysis of the ACX/SSC comment section quality over time reveals historical peaks and valleys, with recent signs of improvement after previous declines in 2016 and 2021. Longer summary

This review analyzes the quality of the Astral Codex Ten (ACX) comment section over time, comparing it to its predecessor Slate Star Codex (SSC). Through detailed data analysis of 1.8M comments across 2,460 posts, the author identifies two major changes in comment quality - one in 2016 and another during the 2021 transition to ACX. The analysis looks at four key metrics: depth of engagement, freedom of intellectual engagement, politeness, and complexity of thought. While the data shows a decline after these turning points, recent trends suggest the comment section may be recovering. The author explores several hypotheses for the 2016 decline, including changes in post frequency and the impact of Trump's rise on discussion norms. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews several model city projects, analyzing their feasibility and unique challenges with a mix of skepticism and interest. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several model city projects, including Telosa (a planned Georgist utopia in the American desert), Prospera (a libertarian charter city in Honduras), Auroville (an existing spiritual community in India), and other related developments. He analyzes the feasibility, challenges, and unique aspects of each project, often with a skeptical but open-minded perspective. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses the evolution of genetic science as a metaphor to explore how other fields might benefit from recognizing the polycausal nature of complex phenomena. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the evolution of genetic science, from the search for single genes responsible for complex traits to the current understanding that almost all genes contribute to these traits. He uses this as a metaphor for other sciences, particularly psychiatry, suggesting that many fields may be more polycausal than initially thought. The post explores the implications of this shift, including skepticism about personalized medicine and the potential need for new approaches to scientific research that can handle massive numbers of interacting causes. Scott concludes by imagining a hypothetical alien society where science is centered around polycausal scores, presenting this as a thought experiment for what science could aspire to be. Shorter summary